FightChoice Intelligence Report

Mario Pinto
vs
Ryan Spann

Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann

https://fightchoice.app/events/mario-pinto-vs-ryan-spann-prediction-2026-09-05

Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 15, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Mario Pinto Ryan Spann
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 51.8% 48.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 67.0% 33.0%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 71.9% 28.1%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 80.4% 19.6%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 77.0% 23.0%
Ensemble 78.5% 21.5%
Predicted Winner
Mario Pinto
78.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
33% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Mario Pinto Ryan Spann
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 14, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Welterweight
Carlos Condit
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
86s
Alex Oliveira Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
112s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Featherweight
Daniel Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
39.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Dooho Choi Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.5s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 2, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Heavyweight
Brando Pericic Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44.5
Strike accuracy
54.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Shamil Gaziev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
108s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2010
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Heavyweight
Cain Velasquez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
103s
Brock Lesnar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2012
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
Welterweight
Dong Hyun Kim
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Demian Maia Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 20, 2010
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Lightweight
Joe Lauzon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
20.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.5s
George Sotiropoulos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
27.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
27.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
101.5s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 2, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Lightweight
Joe Solecki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
55.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
121s
Jared Gordon Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
59.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
82.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 29, 2024
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Light Heavyweight
Roman Dolidze Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
54.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71s
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Featherweight
Chepe Mariscal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.7s
Ricardo Ramos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
40.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Featherweight
Cub Swanson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Frankie Edgar Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
42.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 7, 2022
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Women's Strawweight
Loopy Godinez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
75.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
268.7s
Ariane Carnelossi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2012
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
Alexander Gustafsson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 3, 2015
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Light Heavyweight
Daniel Cormier Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.4s
Alexander Gustafsson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 29, 2018
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.3s
Alexander Gustafsson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
26.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2018
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Lightweight
Islam Makhachev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Gleison Tibau
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Mario Pinto Ryan Spann
UFC Record 3-0 10-6
Height 6' 5" 6' 5"
Weight 265 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach 79" 79"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 34

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Mario Pinto Ryan Spann
Per Round Average
Strikes 10.9 11.7
Strike accuracy 66.7% 39.5%
Takedowns 0.7 0.3
Takedown accuracy 26.3% 34.8%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.4
Control time 120.1s 53.6s
Knockdowns 0.14 0.23
Knockdowns absorbed 0.14 0.15
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 62.5%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 4 2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 4 16
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 80.3% 75.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.5% 18.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.2% 6.2%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7.71 14.62
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.5
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.26 0.43
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.3 0.44
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 80.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 40.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 40.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 83.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 44.7% 72.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 18.4% 7.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 36.8% 20.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:56 6:10
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,546.7 1,551.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.075 0.104
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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