FightChoice Intelligence Report

Morgan Charriere
vs
Felipe Lima

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima

https://fightchoice.app/events/morgan-charriere-vs-felipe-lima-prediction-2026-09-05

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Morgan Charriere Felipe Lima
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 44.1% 55.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 54.5% 45.5%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 30.8% 69.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 45.7% 54.3%
Ensemble 42.4% 57.6%
Predicted Winner
Felipe Lima
57.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

65% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Morgan Charriere 23.3% 12.5% 6.6% 42.4%
Felipe Lima 31.6% 17.0% 9.0% 57.6%
281 historical bouts 54.8% 29.5% 15.7% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

55% Reached the judges
45% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 16% Submission 6:00 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Morgan Charriere Felipe Lima
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 13, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo
Middleweight
Karl Roberson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
Marvin Vettori Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45
Strike accuracy
70.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
125s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 15, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
Bantamweight
Rob Font Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
96.3s
Sergio Pettis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Bantamweight
Andre Ewell Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Irwin Rivera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2016
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Women's Strawweight
Cortney Casey Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
83s
Randa Markos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
23.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
112s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Women's Strawweight
Ariane Carnelossi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
Talita Alencar Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
62.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
123.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 9, 2020
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Welterweight
Vicente Luque Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43.3
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.3s
Niko Price
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 28, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Women's Strawweight
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
37.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
Tecia Pennington
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2014
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
Lightweight
Charlie Brenneman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
61.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64s
Danny Castillo Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
76.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.5s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 6, 2008
UFC 88: Breakthrough
Lightweight
Kurt Pellegrino Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
62.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
127s
Thiago Tavares
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
9.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 13, 2024
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Lightweight
Justin Gaethje
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.6
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Max Holloway Winner
Finish 5th Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.2
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Waldo Cortes Acosta Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Flyweight
Daniel Barez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Luis Gurule Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
49.7
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
Lightweight
Yancy Medeiros
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
35.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Lando Vannata Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 25, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Heavyweight
Tanner Boser Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.5
Strike accuracy
71.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Raphael Pessoa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
Bantamweight
Kleydson Rodrigues
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
87.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
Farid Basharat Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
195s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Morgan Charriere Felipe Lima
Career Record 21-12-1 14-2
Height 5' 8" 5' 6"
Weight 145 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 69" 68"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 30 28

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Morgan Charriere Felipe Lima
Per Round Average
Strikes 15.8 13.1
Strike accuracy 50% 45%
Takedowns 0.5 0.7
Takedown accuracy 46.7% 27.3%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.2
Control time 48s 49.3s
Knockdowns 0.23 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.15 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 61.3% 85.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 31 7
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 60.0% 59.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.9% 22.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.1% 17.8%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.69 13.33
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.15 0.11
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.37 0.45
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.65 1
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.25 3
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 73.7% 33.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 63.2% 16.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.5% 16.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 16.7% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.3% 88.1%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.9% 10.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.9% 1.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:30 13:45
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,505.4 1,519.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.118 0.055
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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