FightChoice Intelligence Report

Michael Page
vs
Nursulton Ruziboev

Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev

https://fightchoice.app/events/michael-page-vs-nursulton-ruziboev-prediction-2026-09-05

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Michael Page Nursulton Ruziboev
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 42.9% 57.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 46.2% 53.8%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 28.0% 72.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 30.8% 69.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 51.4% 48.6%
Ensemble 35.6% 64.4%
Predicted Winner
Nursulton Ruziboev
64.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

38% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 79 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 79 similar fights By submission *Based on 79 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Michael Page 20.7% 8.6% 6.3% 35.6%
Nursulton Ruziboev 37.5% 15.5% 11.4% 64.4%
79 historical bouts 58.2% 24.1% 17.7% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

79 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 79 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

58% Reached the judges
42% Ended early
24% KO/TKO 18% Submission 8:54 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Michael Page Nursulton Ruziboev
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
Welterweight
Jeremiah Wells
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.7s
Carlston Harris Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.7
Strike accuracy
26.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
189.7s
Kevin Holland Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
61.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Featherweight
Danny Silva Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
44.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.3s
Josh Culibao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 25, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Featherweight
Michael Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
31.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
66.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 25, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Bantamweight
John Castaneda
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
Nathaniel Wood Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43.7
Strike accuracy
56.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.3s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 4, 2014
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
Welterweight
Tarec Saffiedine
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
30.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rory MacDonald Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 29, 2024
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Welterweight
Michael Page
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
55.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.3s
Ian Machado Garry Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
149.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 26, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
Flyweight
Victor Altamirano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
57.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
Carlos Hernandez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 7, 2020
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
Women's Strawweight
Zhang Weili Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.6s
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.2
Strike accuracy
51.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.2s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 8, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Featherweight
Hyder Amil
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
37.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.7s
Jamall Emmers Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
87.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
171.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2023
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Featherweight
Blake Bilder Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
58.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
Shane Young
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
Heavyweight
Matt Mitrione
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ben Rothwell Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2023
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Middleweight
Dricus Du Plessis Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.5
Strike accuracy
61.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.5s
Derek Brunson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 30, 2016
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Welterweight
Tarec Saffiedine Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
Jake Ellenberger
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
30.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 26, 2014
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
Lightweight
Daron Cruickshank
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
22.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.3s
Jorge Masvidal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
149.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Michael Page Nursulton Ruziboev
Career Record 25-3 37-9-2
Height 6' 3" 6' 5"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 79" 76"
Stance Switch Orthodox
Age 39 32

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Michael Page Nursulton Ruziboev
Per Round Average
Strikes 10.7 9.6
Strike accuracy 56.5% 46.5%
Takedowns 0 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% 80%
Sub attempts 0 0.1
Control time 18.3s 38.5s
Knockdowns 0 0.27
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.09
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 88.5% 80.9%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 26 47
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 63.4% 68.6%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.7% 25.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.9% 5.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7.87 10.73
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.4 0.55
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.12 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.64 3.39
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.9% 92.1%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 43.5% 36.8%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 17.4% 55.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 22.2%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 92.5% 71.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.6% 7.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 1.9% 21.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 7:21
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,560.5 1,560.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.375 0.248
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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