FightChoice Intelligence Report

Mario Pinto
vs
Ryan Spann

Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann

https://fightchoice.app/events/mario-pinto-vs-ryan-spann-prediction-2026-09-05

Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Mario Pinto Ryan Spann
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 64.2% 35.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 67.0% 33.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 69.5% 30.5%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 82.5% 17.5%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 79.2% 20.8%
Ensemble 80.0% 20.0%
Predicted Winner
Mario Pinto
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

28% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Mario Pinto 39.9% 24.5% 15.7% 80.0%
Ryan Spann 10.0% 6.1% 3.9% 20.0%
281 historical bouts 49.8% 30.6% 19.6% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

50% Reached the judges
50% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 20% Submission 6:14 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Mario Pinto Ryan Spann
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 9, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev
Bantamweight
Ricky Turcios
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
11.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Aiemann Zahabi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
51.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
Welterweight
Mike Perry Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Alex Reyes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 11, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
Welterweight
Leon Edwards Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Seth Baczynski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 29, 2024
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Women's Bantamweight
Macy Chiasson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
58.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
Mayra Bueno Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
78%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2013
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
Featherweight
Jose Aldo Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 2m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
Chan Sung Jung
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
14.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.8s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 17, 2016
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Women's Strawweight
Paige VanZant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Michelle Waterson-Gomez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
70.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
108s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 31, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado
Lightweight
Elias Silverio Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.7s
Ernest Chavez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Lightweight
Arman Tsarukyan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62.7s
Davi Ramos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
32%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2
Welterweight
Robert Whittaker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
26.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Court McGee Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
28.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
Light Heavyweight
Aleksandar Rakic Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
77.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
244.7s
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 19, 2014
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao
Featherweight
Diego Brandao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
22s
Conor McGregor Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
36.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
141s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 25, 2014
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
33.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
Gabriel Gonzaga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
35.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 19, 2025
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Women's Flyweight
Carli Judice Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.3
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
Nicolle Caliari
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2013
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
Featherweight
Cub Swanson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
42.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Dennis Siver
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
18.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2018
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Featherweight
Shane Burgos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Calvin Kattar Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Mario Pinto Ryan Spann
UFC Record 3-0 10-6
Height 6' 5" 6' 5"
Weight 265 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach 79" 79"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 34

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Mario Pinto Ryan Spann
Per Round Average
Strikes 10.9 11.7
Strike accuracy 66.7% 39.5%
Takedowns 0.7 0.3
Takedown accuracy 26.3% 34.8%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.4
Control time 120.1s 53.6s
Knockdowns 0.14 0.23
Knockdowns absorbed 0.14 0.15
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 62.5%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 4 2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 4 16
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 80.3% 75.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.5% 18.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.2% 6.2%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7.71 14.62
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.5
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.26 0.43
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.3 0.44
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 80.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 40.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 40.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 83.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 44.7% 72.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 18.4% 7.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 36.8% 20.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:56 6:10
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,546.7 1,551.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.075 0.104
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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