FightChoice Intelligence Report

Kurtis Campbell
vs
Trevor Peek

Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek

https://fightchoice.app/events/kurtis-campbell-vs-trevor-peek-prediction-2026-09-05

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Kurtis Campbell Trevor Peek
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 33.0% 67.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 52.0% 48.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 62.3% 37.7%
Ensemble 51.4% 48.6%
Predicted Winner
Kurtis Campbell
51.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

45% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Kurtis Campbell 28.9% 14.8% 7.7% 51.4%
Trevor Peek 27.3% 14.0% 7.3% 48.6%
281 historical bouts 56.2% 28.8% 14.9% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

56% Reached the judges
44% Ended early
29% KO/TKO 15% Submission 4:51 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Kurtis Campbell Trevor Peek
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2018
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
Middleweight
Luke Rockhold
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Yoel Romero Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 21, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
Middleweight
JunYong Park Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.7s
Marc-Andre Barriault
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
31.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2017
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63s
Drakkar Klose Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
49.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
107s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 26, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Bantamweight
Toshiomi Kazama
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Garrett Armfield Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45
Strike accuracy
58.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Heavyweight
Ryan Spann Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
Marcus Buchecha
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.5s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 18, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson
Lightweight
Joe Duffy Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
86.7s
Reza Madadi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
Lightweight
Josh Shockley
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
30.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Ivan Jorge Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
122.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 13, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez
Women's Flyweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
156s
Fatima Kline
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 7, 2025
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Flyweight
Bruno Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
51%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Joshua Van Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41.7
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Welterweight
Belal Muhammad Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
77.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
239s
Stephen Thompson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
59.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 4, 2012
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Welterweight
DaMarques Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
32.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101.5s
Mike Swick Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Middleweight
Anthony Hernandez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kevin Holland Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
77.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2022
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Flyweight
Daniel Lacerda
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Victor Altamirano Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
58
Strike accuracy
69.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
115s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 6, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Heavyweight
Ante Delija Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Marcin Tybura
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
78s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 14, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov
Bantamweight
Mateus Mendonca
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
33%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
Javid Basharat Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.7
Strike accuracy
73.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
106.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Kurtis Campbell Trevor Peek
Career Record 8-1 9-3
Height 5' 9" 5' 9"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 72" 70"
Stance Switch Switch
Age 24 31

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Kurtis Campbell Trevor Peek
Per Round Average
Strikes 8.5 20.4
Strike accuracy 41.5% 51.8%
Takedowns 1 0.5
Takedown accuracy 40% 50%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 58s 48.8s
Knockdowns 0 0.15
Knockdowns absorbed 1 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 33.3% 70.6%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 33.3% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 3 17
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 70.6% 58.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.8% 26.8%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.6% 14.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 8 16.69
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 1.69
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.45
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.08
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.5
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 83.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 83.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 20.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.2% 78.1%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 11.8% 16.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 5.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 5:31 13:00
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,484.7 1,482.2
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.011 0.095
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early Decline

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