FightChoice Intelligence Report

Fares Ziam
vs
Axel Sola

Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola

https://fightchoice.app/events/fares-ziam-vs-axel-sola-prediction-2026-09-05

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Fares Ziam Axel Sola
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 54.1% 45.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 16.7% 83.3%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 48.0% 52.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 63.9% 36.1%
Ensemble 46.1% 53.9%
Predicted Winner
Axel Sola
53.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

53% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 245 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 245 similar fights By submission *Based on 245 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Fares Ziam 20.5% 16.2% 9.4% 46.1%
Axel Sola 24.0% 18.9% 11.0% 53.9%
245 historical bouts 44.5% 35.1% 20.4% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

245 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 245 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

44% Reached the judges
56% Ended early
35% KO/TKO 20% Submission 6:26 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Fares Ziam Axel Sola
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 27, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Heavyweight
Austen Lane
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
134.5s
Jhonata Diniz Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
60.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 29, 2018
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
Light Heavyweight
Ilir Latifi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.3s
Corey Anderson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
33.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2022
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
catch/open/unknown
Li Jingliang
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Daniel Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 2, 2016
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Welterweight
Carlos Condit
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.2
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Robbie Lawler Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.4
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.2s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 22, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith
Light Heavyweight
Glover Teixeira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
Corey Anderson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
36.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
148.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 6, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
Welterweight
Vicente Luque
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.3
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Geoff Neal Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40.3
Strike accuracy
57.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2021
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Women's Bantamweight
Alexis Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Pannie Kianzad Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41.3
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2010
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Middleweight
Patrick Cote
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
27.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
Tom Lawlor Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
65.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
259.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
Lightweight
Melvin Guillard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
21.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Michael Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 7, 2007
UFC 69: Shootout
Welterweight
Pete Spratt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Marcus Davis Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
165s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 10, 2023
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Bantamweight
Aoriqileng
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Aiemann Zahabi Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m04s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 21, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Featherweight
Ricardo Lamas Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
52.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.7s
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
34.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 18, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
Middleweight
Roman Dolidze Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
Kyle Daukaus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 13, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Women's Featherweight
Felicia Spencer Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
71.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
239.3s
Leah Letson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 15, 2008
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar
Heavyweight
Brock Lesnar Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
73.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85s
Randy Couture
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
93s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Fares Ziam Axel Sola
Career Record 18-5 12-1-1
Height 6' 1" 6' 2"
Weight 155 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 75" 74"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 29 28

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Fares Ziam Axel Sola
Per Round Average
Strikes 13.0 20.4
Strike accuracy 52.4% 50.4%
Takedowns 0.6 0.6
Takedown accuracy 42.9% 36.4%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.1
Control time 79s 63.9s
Knockdowns 0.07 0.29
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 78.3% 81.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 23 11
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 65.6% 83.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.5% 16.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 15.9% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7.67 20.57
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.7 0.14
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.6 0.81
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.79 2.76
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.6 0.33
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 61.1% 55.6%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 33.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 27.8% 22.2%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 60.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 69.7% 69.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 12.6% 23.8%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 17.7% 7.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:12 10:35
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,575.6 1,514.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.248 0.065
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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