FightChoice Intelligence Report
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos
https://fightchoice.app/events/raul-rosas-jr-vs-raoni-barcelos-prediction-2026-09-26
Bantamweight
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Sep 26, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:06 UTC
Model Breakdown
Raul Rosas Jr.
Raoni Barcelos
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
52.4%
47.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
63.8%
36.2%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
86.5%
13.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
82.5%
17.5%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
81.6%
18.4%
Ensemble
80.0%
20.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Raul Rosas Jr. is favored by the ensemble prediction. Key factors driving this include Raul Rosas Jr.'s younger age and lower absorption of significant strikes, with several models also highlighting his takedown ability and win rate. Despite a split among individual models on factors like stance and strike rate, the combined prediction leans heavily towards Raul Rosas Jr.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Raul Rosas Jr. due to his higher win rate, younger age, not being past his prime, and absorbing fewer significant strikes.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Raul Rosas Jr. due to his younger age, absorbing fewer significant strikes, and landing more takedowns.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Raul Rosas Jr.
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
5th Round at 1m15s (21m15s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
80%
64%
54%
48%
41%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
Rnd 4
Rnd 5
41%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
10 historical bouts
Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
|
Juan Diaz
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
|
Curtis Blaydes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
|
Todd Duffee
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
59%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne
|
Fight Performance
|
Aiemann Zahabi
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
|
Gabriel Bonfim
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
|
Charles Johnson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
|
Fight Performance
|
Adrian Yanez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
|
Fight Performance
|
Nordine Taleb
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
56%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
|
Glover Teixeira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson
|
Ramsey Nijem
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
|
Francis Marshall
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori
|
Jordan Leavitt
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
|
Asu Almabayev
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
|
Poliana Botelho
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
|
Rodolfo Vieira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Tale of the Tape
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 6-1 | 11-4 |
| Height | 5' 9" | 5' 7" |
| Weight | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach | 67" | 67" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Age | 21 | 39 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 5.9 | 22.4 |
| Strike accuracy | 41.1% | 51.7% |
| Takedowns | 2 | 0.8 |
| Takedown accuracy | 54.2% | 31.7% |
| Sub attempts | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 151.4s | 71.3s |
| Knockdowns | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0.07 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 93.3% | 73.3% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 5 | 5 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 15 | 15 |
| head strike share | 64.2% | 73.2% |
| body strike share | 13.7% | 13.5% |
| leg strike share | 22.1% | 13.3% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 5.94 | 20.41 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.43 | 1.37 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.18 | 0.83 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | Yes | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 71.4% | 36.4% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 14.3% | 18.2% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 57.1% | 18.2% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| distance strike share | 67.4% | 74.2% |
| clinch strike share | 1.1% | 7.0% |
| ground strike share | 31.6% | 18.8% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 10:09 | 13:09 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,572.3 | 1,599.2 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.175 | 0.549 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 80.0% | 1.62 | 61.7% | +29.6% |
| Raoni Barcelos | 20.0% | 2.36 | 42.4% | -52.8% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
30%
of bankroll
on Raul Rosas Jr. at 1.56 (BetOnline)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -208 | 1.48 | +128 | 2.28 |
| DraftKings | -161 | 1.62 | +136 | 2.36 |
| BetMGM | -185 | 1.54 | +150 | 2.50 |
| Bovada | -161 | 1.62 | +135 | 2.35 |
| BetOnline | -154 | 1.65 | +131 | 2.31 |
Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Raul Rosas Jr.
Raoni Barcelos
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