FightChoice Intelligence Report

Rodolfo Vieira
vs
Robert Bryczek

Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek

https://fightchoice.app/events/rodolfo-vieira-vs-robert-bryczek-prediction-2026-09-26

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Sep 26, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
Rodolfo Vieira Robert Bryczek
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 54.9% 45.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 57.3% 42.7%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 52.3% 47.7%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 61.5% 38.5%
Ensemble 60.3% 39.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Robert Bryczek's higher Elo rating and past prime status are key drivers favoring Rodolfo Vieira. The ENSEMBLE ultimately favors Rodolfo Vieira (60%), despite some models leaning towards Robert Bryczek due to age and past prime factors.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Rodolfo Vieira, citing his higher control time and sig strike accuracy against Robert Bryczek.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Rodolfo Vieira, highlighting his edge in distance strike share and takedowns landed against Robert Bryczek.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Rodolfo Vieira
60.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

50% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 284 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights By submission *Based on 284 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Rodolfo Vieira 28.9% 22.7% 8.7% 60.3%
Robert Bryczek 19.0% 15.0% 5.7% 39.7%
284 historical bouts 47.9% 37.7% 14.4% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

284 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

48% Reached the judges
52% Ended early
38% KO/TKO 14% Submission 5:32 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Rodolfo Vieira Robert Bryczek
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2021
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Women's Bantamweight
Alexis Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Pannie Kianzad Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41.3
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
130s
Jay Perrin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
39.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 6, 2011
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
Welterweight
Mike Pyle
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
17.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62s
Rory MacDonald Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
64.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
108s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 25, 2013
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
Bantamweight
Brian Bowles
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
George Roop Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 8, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Lightweight
Yan Cabral
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
37.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
10%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63s
Reza Madadi Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2013
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Bantamweight
Reuben Duran
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
53.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
150.7s
George Roop Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
88.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 19, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Women's Flyweight
Rachael Ostovich
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
71.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.5s
Paige VanZant Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
63%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
136.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 8, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Women's Flyweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.6
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.8s
Marina Rodriguez Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.2s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 15, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
Bantamweight
Rani Yahya Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
36.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
106.3s
Masanori Kanehara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 24, 2011
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
Light Heavyweight
Ricardo Romero
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
James Te Huna Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
71.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 26, 2024
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Middleweight
Abus Magomedov Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
72s
Brunno Ferreira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 4, 2017
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
Bantamweight
TJ Dillashaw Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
24.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
Cody Garbrandt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
34%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Bantamweight
Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.5s
Song Yadong Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 6, 2010
UFC 109: Relentless
Welterweight
Paulo Thiago Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
36%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
Mike Swick
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
11.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 29, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos
Bantamweight
Journey Newson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
30.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Ricardo Ramos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Rodolfo Vieira Robert Bryczek
UFC Record 6-5 1-2
Height 6' 0" 6' 0"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 73" 75"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 36 36

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Rodolfo Vieira Robert Bryczek
Per Round Average
Strikes 15.2 13
Strike accuracy 54.3% 38%
Takedowns 0.9 0.1
Takedown accuracy 22.2% 100%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.1
Control time 81.2s 13s
Knockdowns 0.04 0.11
Knockdowns absorbed 0.08 0.11
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 54.5% 50.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 11 10
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 64.0% 60.7%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.2% 29.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.8% 10.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.88 20.89
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.15 0.44
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.78 0.51
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.65 1.05
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.2 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 83.3% 80.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 80.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 83.3% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 40.0% 40.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.6% 76.9%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.3% 9.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.1% 13.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:27 13:54
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,509.1 1,487.8
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.108 0.042
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline
Market Intel

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Rodolfo Vieira 60.3% 1.62 61.7% -2.3%
Robert Bryczek 39.7% 2.36 42.4% -6.3%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 16% of bankroll on Rodolfo Vieira at 1.93 (BetOnline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Rodolfo Vieira Robert Bryczek
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -175 1.57 +110 2.10
DraftKings -161 1.62 +136 2.36
BetMGM -161 1.62 +135 2.35
Bovada -161 1.62 +135 2.35
BetOnline -161 1.62 +138 2.38

Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM

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