FightChoice Intelligence Report

Elves Brener
vs
Josiah Harrell

Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell

https://fightchoice.app/events/elves-brener-vs-josiah-harrell-prediction-2026-09-26

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Sep 26, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:05 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

  • Sep 5, 2026, 00:05 UTC · Elves Brener
Model Breakdown
Elves Brener Josiah Harrell
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 53.2% 46.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 32.7% 67.3%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 52.5% 47.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Ensemble 43.5% 56.5%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Josiah Harrell's win rate and Elves Brener's Elo rating are key drivers favoring him. The ensemble prediction favors Josiah Harrell (57%), despite a split among individual models, with Model λ showing the strongest conviction for Harrell.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Josiah Harrell, citing J.H.'s past prime, J.H.'s sig strikes absorbed, E.B.'s Elo rating, and J.H.'s win rate.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Josiah Harrell, based on J.H. being orthodox and E.B.'s clinch strike share, despite E.B. having a higher distance strike share and J.H. being southpaw.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Josiah Harrell
56.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

57% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 172 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 172 similar fights By submission *Based on 172 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Elves Brener 23.5% 12.9% 7.1% 43.5%
Josiah Harrell 30.6% 16.8% 9.2% 56.5%
172 historical bouts 54.1% 29.7% 16.3% 100.0%
Share This Intel Report Export as Image
Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

172 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 172 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 16% Submission 5:00 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Elves Brener Josiah Harrell
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Flyweight
Hector Sandoval Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
64%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58s
Matt Schnell
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 19, 2010
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale
Lightweight
Spencer Fisher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
36.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dennis Siver Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
30.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
117s
Scott Holtzman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 25, 2013
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
Lightweight
Abel Trujillo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
36.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.3s
Khabib Nurmagomedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
57.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
7
Takedown accuracy
77.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
208.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 5, 2009
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
Matt Hamill Winner
Decision 1st Rnd, 4m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
29.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 23, 2013
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Welterweight
Brock Jardine
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kenny Robertson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
69.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
156s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 31, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado
Lightweight
Rashid Magomedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
Rodrigo Damm
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2011
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Middleweight
Brian Stann Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.5
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
Jorge Santiago
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
32.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 10, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
Lightweight
Justin Salas Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
76.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
Ben Wall
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve
Lightweight
Andrew Holbrook
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
40.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Thibault Gouti Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 24, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
56.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.5s
Loik Radzhabov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
35.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 13, 2010
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
Light Heavyweight
Seth Petruzelli
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Karlos Vemola Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
200s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Light Heavyweight
Sam Alvey Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Gian Villante
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
37.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 7, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping
Middleweight
Luke Rockhold Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.5s
Michael Bisping
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
24.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.5s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 30, 2022
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Light Heavyweight
Ihor Potieria
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Nicolae Negumereanu Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.5
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
120.5s

Export as Image

Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Elves Brener Josiah Harrell
Career Record 16-6 11-1
Height 5' 10" 5' 7"
Weight 155 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 72" 68"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 28 27

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Elves Brener Josiah Harrell
Per Round Average
Strikes 22.6 7
Strike accuracy 47.5% 50%
Takedowns 0.3 0
Takedown accuracy 16.7% 0%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 23s 1s
Knockdowns 0.13 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.13 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 76.2% 80.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -3 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 21 5
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 57.3% 14.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.1% 42.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.5% 42.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 27.81 33
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.38 2
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.04 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.04 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.5 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 87.5% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 18.8% 25.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 68.8% 50.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 20.0% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 92.2% 100.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.0% 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.7% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 12:39 3:01
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,499.4 1,485.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.151 0.031
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak
Market Intel

Betting Edge

Recommended stake 9% of bankroll on Josiah Harrell at 1.80 (proline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Elves Brener Josiah Harrell
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -102 1.98 -156 1.64

Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM

Export as Image

More from UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez John Castaneda vs Alatengheili Mickey Gall vs Sedriques Dumas Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui

Put your own money-free bets on Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell

Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.

Create your free account