FightChoice Intelligence Report

Norma Dumont
vs
Ailin Perez

Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez

https://fightchoice.app/events/norma-dumont-vs-ailin-perez-prediction-2026-09-26

Women's Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Sep 26, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Norma Dumont Ailin Perez
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 52.4% 47.6%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 20.4% 79.6%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 17.5% 82.5%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 33.4% 66.6%
Ensemble 27.5% 72.5%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Ailin Perez's superior takedown game and advantageous age/prime status are the strongest drivers for this prediction. The ensemble favors Ailin Perez, despite Norma Dumont having a slight edge in Elo rating and distance striking according to one model.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Ailin Perez, citing her advantages in age, past prime status, win rate, absorbed significant strikes, and landed takedowns against Norma Dumont.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Ailin Perez, noting her switch stance and ground strike share, despite Norma Dumont's Elo rating and Ailin Perez's distance strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Ailin Perez
72.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

70% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 75 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 75 similar fights By submission *Based on 75 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Norma Dumont 15.4% 8.4% 3.7% 27.5%
Ailin Perez 40.6% 22.2% 9.7% 72.5%
75 historical bouts 56.0% 30.7% 13.3% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

75 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 75 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

56% Reached the judges
44% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 13% Submission 9:13 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Norma Dumont Ailin Perez
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 1, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
Lightweight
Damir Ismagulov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
Grant Dawson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
248s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2024
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Welterweight
Sam Patterson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
34.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
56s
Kiefer Crosbie
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 7, 2020
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
Women's Strawweight
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.2
Strike accuracy
51.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.2s
Zhang Weili Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.6s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 8, 2025
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
Middleweight
Sean Strickland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.6
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dricus Du Plessis Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.4
Strike accuracy
46.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 15, 2025
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Featherweight
Ethyn Ewing Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
52.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
Malcolm Wellmaker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 21, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Middleweight
Michel Pereira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Zach Reese
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Bantamweight
Renan Barao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38.7
Strike accuracy
50.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.3s
Brian Kelleher Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
87.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2017
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
Light Heavyweight
Glover Teixeira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
45.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
212.3s
Jared Cannonier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2023
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.5s
Dricus Du Plessis Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
59.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 13, 2024
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Women's Strawweight
Yan Xiaonan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.6
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28s
Zhang Weili Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.2
Strike accuracy
67.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.4
Control time (Per Rnd)
152.8s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 2, 2019
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
Women's Strawweight
Tecia Pennington
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23s
Zhang Weili Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 1, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka
Light Heavyweight
Jiri Prochazka Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38.5
Strike accuracy
56.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.5s
Dominick Reyes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.5
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.5s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 15, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze
Featherweight
Kevin Croom
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
Brian Kelleher Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
49.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
128.7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 26, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
Flyweight
Carlos Hernandez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.3s
Victor Altamirano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
57.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 13, 2016
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Women's Strawweight
Cortney Casey Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
67.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Cristina Stanciu
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Norma Dumont Ailin Perez
UFC Record 9-3 6-1
Height 5' 7" 5' 5"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 67" 66"
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 35 31

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Norma Dumont Ailin Perez
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.1 14.2
Strike accuracy 51% 56.3%
Takedowns 0.5 1.6
Takedown accuracy 54.8% 49.2%
Sub attempts 0 0.1
Control time 71.4s 132s
Knockdowns 0.06 0.06
Knockdowns absorbed 0.06 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 76.9% 93.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 6
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 13 15
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 60.1% 59.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 22.0% 21.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.9% 19.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 11.56 7.78
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.25 0.17
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.16 0.82
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.26 1.52
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 2 0.54
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.0% 50.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 28.6%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.0% 21.4%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 81.4% 48.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.1% 17.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.5% 34.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:53 12:41
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,592.6 1,575.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.215 0.142
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak
Market Intel

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Norma Dumont 27.5% 2.24 44.6% -38.4%
Ailin Perez 72.5% 1.68 59.5% +21.8%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 26% of bankroll on Ailin Perez at 1.77 (BetOnline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Norma Dumont Ailin Perez
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -102 1.98 -156 1.64
DraftKings +124 2.24 -147 1.68
BetMGM +110 2.10 -135 1.74
Bovada +122 2.22 -143 1.70
BetOnline +122 2.22 -143 1.70

Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM

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