FightChoice Intelligence Report

Brady Hiestand
vs
Rinya Nakamura

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura

https://fightchoice.app/events/brady-hiestand-vs-rinya-nakamura-prediction-2026-09-26

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Sep 26, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
Brady Hiestand Rinya Nakamura
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 42.8% 57.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 57.1% 42.9%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 52.8% 47.2%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 55.8% 44.2%
Ensemble 52.7% 47.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble favors Brady Hiestand, despite a majority of individual models leaning towards Rinya Nakamura. This outcome is due to calibrated weighting, with R.N.'s lower sig strikes absorbed and fewer knockdowns absorbed being significant drivers for the individual models. Brady Hiestand ultimately wins out in the combined prediction.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Rinya Nakamura, citing R.N.'s lower sig strikes absorbed and fewer knockdowns absorbed.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Brady Hiestand, based on R.N. being orthodox and R.N.'s higher clinch strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Brady Hiestand
52.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

58% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 284 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights By submission *Based on 284 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Brady Hiestand 28.4% 17.1% 7.2% 52.7%
Rinya Nakamura 25.5% 15.3% 6.5% 47.3%
284 historical bouts 53.9% 32.4% 13.7% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

284 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 14% Submission 6:28 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Brady Hiestand Rinya Nakamura
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 12, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Women's Flyweight
Sabina Mazo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Miranda Maverick Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
121s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 17, 2024
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Heavyweight
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Tai Tuivasa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
29.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno
Bantamweight
Diego Rivas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
35.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
Jose Quinonez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2017
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
78.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71s
Mark Hunt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 12, 2025
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Women's Bantamweight
Nora Cornolle Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.5s
Hailey Cowan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.5
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
132s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 29, 2011
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
Heavyweight
Roy Nelson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.3s
Mirko Filipovic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
50.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 7, 2007
UFC 69: Shootout
Welterweight
Pete Spratt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Marcus Davis Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
165s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 3, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
Daniel Rodriguez Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
39.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 13, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Women's Flyweight
Cortney Casey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
JJ Aldrich Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
114.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 11, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61s
Thomas Petersen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 29, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
Welterweight
John Hathaway Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
30.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
83.3s
John Maguire
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 22, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
Heavyweight
Jared Vanderaa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40.3
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Justin Tafa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
50.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 29, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Khalil Rountree Jr. Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2008
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben
Middleweight
Michael Bisping Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Chris Leben
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
31.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2017
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Lightweight
Mitch Clarke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
33.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Alex White Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.5
Strike accuracy
49.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Brady Hiestand Rinya Nakamura
Career Record 8-2 8-1
Height 5' 8" 5' 7"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 71" 68"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 27 31

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Brady Hiestand Rinya Nakamura
Per Round Average
Strikes 12.7 11.6
Strike accuracy 50.8% 52.5%
Takedowns 1.5 0.6
Takedown accuracy 46.2% 87.5%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.4
Control time 133.3s 132.3s
Knockdowns 0 0.27
Knockdowns absorbed 0.25 0.09
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 88.9% 88.9%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 18 9
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 73.7% 57.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.4% 21.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.9% 21.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.58 6.45
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.33 0
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.14 0.66
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.03 0.75
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 0.33
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 81.3% 62.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 37.5% 62.5%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 43.8% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 83.6% 60.9%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.2% 3.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.2% 35.9%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:03 9:19
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,532.0 1,540.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.156 0.075
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak
Market Intel

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Brady Hiestand 52.7% 3.95 25.3% +108.1%
Rinya Nakamura 47.3% 1.27 78.7% -39.9%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 17% of bankroll on Brady Hiestand at 3.65 (BetOnline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Brady Hiestand Rinya Nakamura
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +230 3.30 -417 1.24
DraftKings +295 3.95 -370 1.27
BetMGM +275 3.75 -345 1.29
Bovada +290 3.90 -357 1.28
BetOnline +273 3.73 -333 1.30

Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM

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