FightChoice Intelligence Report

Montel Jackson
vs
Ricky Simon

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon

https://fightchoice.app/events/montel-jackson-vs-ricky-simon-prediction-2026-09-26

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Sep 26, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
Montel Jackson Ricky Simon
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 53.5% 46.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 57.1% 42.9%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 61.6% 38.4%
Ensemble 59.3% 40.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Montel Jackson, driven by his advantage in sig strikes absorbed and reach over Ricky Simon. Despite some models noting Ricky Simon's advantages in age and takedowns, the combined prediction leans towards Jackson due to the strength of these key factors.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Montel Jackson, citing his lower sig strikes absorbed and longer reach over Ricky Simon.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Montel Jackson, highlighting his longer reach, lower sig strikes absorbed, and orthodox stance.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Montel Jackson
59.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

60% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 284 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights By submission *Based on 284 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Montel Jackson 31.9% 17.9% 9.4% 59.3%
Ricky Simon 21.9% 12.3% 6.5% 40.7%
284 historical bouts 53.9% 30.3% 15.8% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

284 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 16% Submission 6:23 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Montel Jackson Ricky Simon
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 24, 2020
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
catch/open/unknown
Casey Kenney Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
Nathaniel Wood
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45.3
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 8, 2016
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
Bantamweight
Iuri Alcantara Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
Brad Pickett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Welterweight
Ben Saunders Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jake Ellenberger
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 17, 2024
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Lightweight
Tom Nolan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
Alex Reyes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 15, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo
Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
60.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
105s
Cub Swanson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.5
Strike accuracy
64.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2015
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson Winner
Finish 5th Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.2
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.8
Takedown accuracy
63.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
164.6s
Kyoji Horiguchi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.2
Strike accuracy
34.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.4s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 20, 2010
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Welterweight
Matt Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
61.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
55s
Brian Foster Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
56.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
99.5s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 25, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
51.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Michael Bisping
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
29.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 31, 2009
UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2
Light Heavyweight
Stephan Bonnar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.7s
Jon Jones Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
72.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
83.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 4, 2024
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.7s
Jose Aldo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Women's Bantamweight
Nora Cornolle
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Karol Rosa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
56.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
228.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 5, 2014
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
Bantamweight
Alex Caceres
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.3s
Urijah Faber Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
41.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
135.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Middleweight
Tom Breese Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
52.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Daniel Kelly
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
21.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 18, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson
Middleweight
Scott Askham
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.7
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.7s
Brad Scott Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 26, 2013
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Vladimir Matyushenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Montel Jackson Ricky Simon
UFC Record 9-4 10-6-1
Height 5' 10" 5' 6"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 75" 69"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 34 34

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Montel Jackson Ricky Simon
Per Round Average
Strikes 13.3 14.2
Strike accuracy 53.8% 41.9%
Takedowns 0.8 1.2
Takedown accuracy 61% 37.4%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1
Control time 84.5s 81.6s
Knockdowns 0.39 0.11
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.11
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 69.2% 62.5%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 13 16
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 71.9% 69.7%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.9% 16.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.2% 14.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 6.32 18.44
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.97 0.26
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.77 0.71
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.54 1.2
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.7 0.52
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 44.4% 50.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 20.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 11.1% 30.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 33.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 60.5% 79.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 23.5% 8.7%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 16.0% 11.5%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:58 12:32
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,574.4 1,559.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.304 0.521
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline
Market Intel

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Montel Jackson 59.3% 1.51 66.2% -10.5%
Ricky Simon 40.7% 2.64 37.9% +7.5%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 1% of bankroll on Montel Jackson at 1.57 (BetOnline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Montel Jackson Ricky Simon
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -238 1.42 +148 2.48
DraftKings -196 1.51 +164 2.64
BetMGM -208 1.48 +170 2.70
Bovada -204 1.49 +173 2.73
BetOnline -208 1.48 +177 2.77

Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM

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