FightChoice Intelligence Report
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui
https://fightchoice.app/events/vanessa-demopoulos-vs-yazmin-jauregui-prediction-2026-09-26
Women's Strawweight
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Sep 26, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Vanessa Demopoulos
Yazmin Jauregui
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
48.0%
52.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
53.4%
46.6%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
35.2%
64.8%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
24.3%
75.7%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
27.2%
72.8%
Ensemble
31.9%
68.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Yazmin Jauregui is favored by the ensemble prediction, driven by consistent advantages across multiple models in age, past prime status, and reach. Model ζ's strong lean is particularly influential. While most models favor Jauregui, Model λ notes Vanessa Demopoulos's edge in days since last fight and total fights, though this was outweighed in the final prediction.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Yazmin Jauregui, citing her advantages in age difference, being past prime, win rate, and reach.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Yazmin Jauregui, based on her age advantage, lower significant strikes absorbed, reach, and higher significant strikes landed.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Yazmin Jauregui
68.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
80%
65%
57%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
57%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 284 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights | By submission *Based on 284 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 15.1% | 10.9% | 6.0% | 31.9% |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 32.1% | 23.2% | 12.7% | 68.1% |
| 284 historical bouts | 47.2% | 34.2% | 18.7% | 100.0% |
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
284 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
47%
Reached the judges
53%
Ended early
34%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
4:51
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
78
Rnd 2
46
Rnd 3
22
Rnd 4
2
Rnd 5
2
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Vanessa Demopoulos | Yazmin Jauregui |
|---|---|---|
|
79%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
|
Fight Performance
|
MarQuel Mederos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
78%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
|
Fight Performance
|
Cody Garbrandt
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
76%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
|
Kyung Ho Kang
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
|
Fight Performance
|
Chan Sung Jung
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
|
Jim Miller
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
|
Fight Performance
|
Esteban Ribovics
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
|
Fight Performance
|
Colby Covington
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Muhammad Naimov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Pat Sabatini
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Curtis Blaydes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
|
Fight Performance
|
Krzysztof Jotko
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
|
Fight Performance
|
Jamall Emmers
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
|
Fight Performance
|
Manvel Gamburyan
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira
|
Andrei Arlovski
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates
|
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Tale of the Tape
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Vanessa Demopoulos | Yazmin Jauregui |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 11-8 | 11-2 |
| Height | 5' 2" | 5' 3" |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach | 59" | 64" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 38 | 27 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Vanessa Demopoulos | Yazmin Jauregui |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 17.4 | 28.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 39.9% | 39.4% |
| Takedowns | 0.1 | 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 10.3% | 0% |
| Sub attempts | 0.1 | 0 |
| Control time | 36.8s | 18.3s |
| Knockdowns | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 68.2% | 84.6% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -3 | -1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 22 | 13 |
| head strike share | 64.1% | 62.4% |
| body strike share | 25.5% | 16.7% |
| leg strike share | 10.4% | 20.9% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 27.38 | 22.3 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.5 | 0 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.91 | 0.49 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.33 | 0.43 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.5 | 0.000 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 40.0% | 63.6% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 6.7% | 63.6% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 14.3% | 100.0% |
| distance strike share | 74.7% | 82.3% |
| clinch strike share | 14.0% | 9.6% |
| ground strike share | 11.3% | 8.2% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 12:35 | 8:30 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,493.8 | 1,510.3 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.134 | 0.111 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Decline |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 31.9% | 7.50 | 13.3% | +139.5% |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 68.1% | 1.10 | 90.9% | -25.1% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
No bet recommended at the price we recorded.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Vanessa Demopoulos | Yazmin Jauregui | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | +525 | 6.25 | -1667 | 1.06 |
| DraftKings | +650 | 7.50 | -1000 | 1.10 |
| BetMGM | +575 | 6.75 | -909 | 1.11 |
| Bovada | +625 | 7.25 | -909 | 1.11 |
| BetOnline | +663 | 7.63 | -1000 | 1.10 |
Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Vanessa Demopoulos
Yazmin Jauregui
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