FightChoice Intelligence Report

John Castaneda
vs
Alatengheili

John Castaneda vs Alatengheili

https://fightchoice.app/events/john-castaneda-vs-alatengheili-prediction-2026-09-26

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Sep 26, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
John Castaneda Alatengheili
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 52.0% 48.0%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 53.3% 46.7%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 67.9% 32.1%
Ensemble 58.8% 41.2%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors John Castaneda. Model ζ's strong prediction is driven by John Castaneda's switch stance, reach advantage, and Alatengheili's significant strikes absorbed. Model β also favors John Castaneda due to his significant strike accuracy and win rate, and Alatengheili's age.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors John Castaneda, citing his higher significant strike accuracy and win rate, and Alatengheili's age and significant strikes absorbed.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors John Castaneda, highlighting his orthodox stance and reach advantage over Alatengheili, who has a higher clinch strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
John Castaneda
58.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

65% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 237 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 237 similar fights By submission *Based on 237 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
John Castaneda 32.5% 17.6% 8.7% 58.8%
Alatengheili 22.8% 12.3% 6.1% 41.2%
237 historical bouts 55.3% 30.0% 14.8% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

237 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 237 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

55% Reached the judges
45% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 15% Submission 5:52 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight John Castaneda Alatengheili
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 24, 2011
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
Welterweight
Matt Hughes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
26.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Josh Koscheck Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
51%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2024
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Lightweight
Grant Dawson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
65.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
275.3s
Joe Solecki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
63.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2024
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
60.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
Gregory Rodrigues Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
57%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
166.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 23, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2
Lightweight
Mairbek Taisumov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.3s
Michel Prazeres Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
27.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Bantamweight
Malcolm Gordon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
18.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22s
Amir Albazi Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
141s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 30, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.8
Strike accuracy
56.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
Rob Font
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
54.2
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.6s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 6, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi
Featherweight
Robert Peralta
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.7s
Akira Corassani Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
89.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2025
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Lightweight
Rafael Fiziev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
Justin Gaethje Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2023
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Middleweight
Israel Adesanya
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.8
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Sean Strickland Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.4
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.8s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 15, 2012
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Heavyweight
Matt Mitrione
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
Roy Nelson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Flyweight
Charles Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Bruno Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
74.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 15, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Lightweight
Evan Elder Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Genaro Valdez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
27.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 15, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
Lightweight
Elias Silverio Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
60.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
226.3s
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Featherweight
Jonathan Pearce
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
87.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
187.5s
Joanderson Brito Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 2, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
Featherweight
Youssef Zalal Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.5s
Jack Shore
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54.5s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat John Castaneda Alatengheili
Career Record 21-8 17-10-1
Height 5' 6" 5' 5"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 71" 66"
Stance Switch Orthodox
Age 34 34

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat John Castaneda Alatengheili
Per Round Average
Strikes 25.0 13.6
Strike accuracy 51.6% 32.7%
Takedowns 0.5 0.6
Takedown accuracy 39.3% 43.8%
Sub attempts 0.0 0
Control time 47.3s 41s
Knockdowns 0.17 0.04
Knockdowns absorbed 0.13 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 78.8% 65.4%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 33 26
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 56.5% 65.8%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.2% 20.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 27.4% 14.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 25.9 26.14
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.19 0
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.57 1.03
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.99 1.25
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 2.5 12
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 61.5% 47.1%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 34.6% 29.4%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 26.9% 17.6%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 14.3% 33.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.7% 95.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.0% 0.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.3% 4.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 12:36 13:13
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,506.9 1,527.2
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.210 0.109
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline
Market Intel

Market Odds

Sportsbook John Castaneda Alatengheili
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -435 1.23 +240 3.40

Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM

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