FightChoice Intelligence Report

Charles Johnson
vs
Eduardo Chapolin

Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Chapolin

https://fightchoice.app/events/charles-johnson-vs-eduardo-chapolin-prediction-2026-08-15

Catchweight

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Model Breakdown
Charles Johnson Eduardo Chapolin
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 53.4% 46.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 28% weight 85.5% 14.5%
Statistical Model β 27% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 65.5% 34.5%
Predicted Winner
Charles Johnson
65.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
63% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Charles Johnson Eduardo Chapolin
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Flyweight
 Charles Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
66.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.3s
vs Rafael Estevam Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
13.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
187.7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Featherweight
 Josh Culibao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
vs Danny Silva Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
44.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 18, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Featherweight
 Dennis Buzukja
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
vs Marcio Barbosa Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 9, 2024
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Welterweight
 Kevin Holland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
87.3s
vs Michael Page Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
66.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.7s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 13, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Featherweight
 Charles Jourdain Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.3
Strike accuracy
48.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s
vs Marcelo Rojo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
36.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Lightweight
 Evan Elder Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38.3
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
vs Gauge Young
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2023
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Featherweight
 Shane Young
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
vs Blake Bilder Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
58.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 15, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier
Lightweight
 TJ Grant Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
60.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
138.7s
vs Carlo Prater
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.7s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 18, 2023
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
Middleweight
 Christian Leroy Duncan Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
64.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38s
vs Dusko Todorovic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
Featherweight
 Ricardo Lamas Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.7
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
124.3s
vs Bill Algeo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
53%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
Featherweight
 Brian Kelleher Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
vs Ray Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2021
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Lightweight
 Matt Frevola
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
—
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
vs Terrance McKinney Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
80%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 12, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos
Bantamweight
 Da'Mon Blackshear Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
177s
vs Jose Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 17, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Lightweight
 Gabe Green Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
66s
vs Matheus Camilo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2018
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Lightweight
 Diego Ferreira Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
104s
vs Kyle Nelson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s

Pairs shown across both columns have no corner match yet, so we do not assign them to a side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Charles Johnson Eduardo Chapolin
UFC Record 8-7 —
Height 5' 9" 5' 7"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 70" 67"
Stance Switch Orthodox
Age 35 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

No recorded UFC statistics for Eduardo Chapolin.

Stat Charles Johnson Eduardo Chapolin
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.7 —
Strike accuracy 49.8% —
Takedowns 0.2 —
Takedown accuracy 16.7% —
Sub attempts 0.1 —
Control time 17.7s —
Knockdowns 0.10 —
Knockdowns absorbed 0.08 —
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 73.0% —
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% —
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 —
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 37 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 49.8% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 29.4% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.9% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.55 —
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1.05 —
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.21 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.63 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 2 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 59.3% —
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 25.9% —
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% —
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 30.0% —
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 81.3% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 14.2% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.5% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 12:45 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,519.1 —
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.409 —
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline —

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