FightChoice Intelligence Report
Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando
https://fightchoice.app/events/rafael-tobias-vs-lucas-fernando-prediction-2026-08-15
Light Heavyweight
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Rafael Tobias | Lucas Fernando |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 0-1 | — |
| Height | 6' 2" | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 205 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach | 74" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | — |
| Age | 23 | 29 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Rafael Tobias | Lucas Fernando |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 13 | — |
| Strike accuracy | 38.6% | — |
| Takedowns | 0.7 | — |
| Takedown accuracy | 25% | — |
| Sub attempts | 0.3 | — |
| Control time | 50.3s | — |
| Knockdowns | 0 | — |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | — |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 2 | 2 |
| head strike share | 74.4% | 0.0% |
| body strike share | 17.9% | 0.0% |
| leg strike share | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 31.33 | 0.000 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0.000 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | No |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| clinch strike share | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| ground strike share | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 15:00 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,482.5 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.011 | 0.006 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Early | Early |
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Rafael Tobias | Lucas Fernando | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | +188 | 2.88 | -333 | 1.30 |
| DraftKings | +240 | 3.40 | -294 | 1.34 |
| FanDuel | +200 | 3.00 | -263 | 1.38 |
| BetMGM | +250 | 3.50 | -303 | 1.33 |
| Bovada | +250 | 3.50 | -303 | 1.33 |
| BetOnline | +252 | 3.52 | -313 | 1.32 |
Odds captured Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Rafael Tobias
Lucas Fernando
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