FightChoice Intelligence Report
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson
https://fightchoice.app/events/asu-almabayev-vs-charles-johnson-prediction-2026-06-27
Flyweight
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Jun 27, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Jun 25, 2026, 09:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Asu Almabayev
Charles Johnson
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight
60.9%
39.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight
62.9%
37.1%
Statistical Model β 25% weight
76.0%
24.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight
74.2%
25.8%
Ensemble
80.0%
20.0%
Predicted Winner
Asu Almabayev
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m48s (11m48s total)
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Asu Almabayev | Charles Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 24-3 | 19-9 |
| Height | 5' 4" | 5' 9" |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 65" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Age | 32 | 35 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Asu Almabayev | Charles Johnson | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 10.4 | 21.7 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 51.4% | 49.5% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 45.8% | 14.6% | 32.9% |
| Sub attempts | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 133.2s | 16.7s | 49.1s |
| Knockdowns | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 92.0% | 73.7% | 45.6% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 80.0% | 60.0% | 37.5% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 25 | 38 | — |
| head strike share | 53.8% | 50.5% | — |
| body strike share | 24.4% | 28.8% | — |
| leg strike share | 21.8% | 20.7% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 8.78 | 18.53 | 15.22 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.22 | 1 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.4 | 1.21 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.35 | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.41 | 2 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | No | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | Yes | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 60.9% | 60.7% | 46.3% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 13.0% | 25.0% | 27.7% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 47.8% | 35.7% | 18.6% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 50.0% | 30.0% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 64.7% | 82.3% | — |
| clinch strike share | 10.1% | 13.3% | — |
| ground strike share | 25.2% | 4.4% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 13:03 | 12:41 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,589.1 | 1,534.2 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.315 | 0.561 | 0.078 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Decline | — |
Market Intel
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Asu Almabayev | Charles Johnson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -417 | 1.24 | +235 | 3.35 |
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Asu Almabayev
Charles Johnson
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