FightChoice Intelligence Report
Tahir Abdullayev vs Jefferson Nascimento
https://fightchoice.app/events/tahir-abdullayev-vs-jefferson-nascimento-prediction-2026-06-27
Welterweight
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Jun 27, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Jun 25, 2026, 09:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Tahir Abdullayev
Jefferson Nascimento
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight
60.9%
39.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight
75.0%
25.0%
Statistical Model β 25% weight
50.0%
50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight
50.0%
50.0%
Ensemble
60.0%
40.0%
Predicted Winner
Tahir Abdullayev
60.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 2m59s (7m59s total)
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Tahir Abdullayev | Jefferson Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 22-3 | 13-1 |
| Weight | 170 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 29 | — |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Tahir Abdullayev | Jefferson Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 12.3 | 11.7 |
| Strike accuracy | 42.5% | 48.6% |
| Takedowns | 0.7 | 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 33.3% | 0% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Control time | 64s | 11s |
| Knockdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 85.0% | 90.9% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 8 | -1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 20 | 11 |
| head strike share | 70.3% | 31.4% |
| body strike share | 21.6% | 54.3% |
| leg strike share | 8.1% | 14.3% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 11.67 | 12.33 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0.67 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 88.2% | 60.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 52.9% | 40.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 35.3% | 20.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| distance strike share | 37.8% | 94.3% |
| clinch strike share | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| ground strike share | 51.4% | 0.0% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 14:28 | 14:28 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1516 | 1484 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.173 | 0.104 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Tahir Abdullayev | Jefferson Nascimento | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | +112 | 2.12 | -179 | 1.56 |
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Tahir Abdullayev
Jefferson Nascimento
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