FightChoice Intelligence Report

Julien LeBlanc
vs
Gilbert Urbina

Julien LeBlanc vs Gilbert Urbina

https://fightchoice.app/events/julien-leblanc-vs-gilbert-urbina-prediction-2026-10-17

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Julien LeBlanc Gilbert Urbina
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 51.5% 48.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 58.8% 41.2%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 35.0% 65.0%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 24.3% 75.7%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Ensemble 40.6% 59.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Gilbert Urbina is favored by the ensemble prediction, driven by significant reach advantages over Julien LeBlanc across multiple models. Model ζ's strong lean towards Gilbert Urbina is particularly influential, emphasizing reach and head strike share. Despite some models noting Julien LeBlanc's height advantage, the overall calibration and weighting favor Gilbert Urbina.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Gilbert Urbina, citing Gilbert Urbina's reach advantage over Julien LeBlanc, and Julien LeBlanc being older and past his prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Gilbert Urbina, based on Gilbert Urbina's superior ground strike share and a reach advantage over Julien LeBlanc.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Gilbert Urbina
59.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

35% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 90 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 90 similar fights By submission *Based on 90 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Julien LeBlanc 18.1% 14.4% 8.1% 40.6%
Gilbert Urbina 26.4% 21.1% 11.9% 59.4%
90 historical bouts 44.4% 35.6% 20.0% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

90 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 90 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

44% Reached the judges
56% Ended early
36% KO/TKO 20% Submission 4:26 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Julien LeBlanc Gilbert Urbina
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 9, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez
Lightweight
Melquizael Costa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
140.5s
Steve Garcia Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
59.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
23s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Lightweight
Lukasz Sajewski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
46.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
Gilbert Burns Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
43.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
82s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 28, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
Featherweight
Bill Algeo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
73.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.3s
Spike Carlyle
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
86s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 7, 2009
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens
Lightweight
Rich Clementi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
11.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
Gleison Tibau Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
70%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
202s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 18, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson
Light Heavyweight
Jimi Manuwa Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Corey Anderson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62s
Azamat Murzakanov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 28, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Lightweight
Ignacio Bahamondes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.7s
Tofiq Musayev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
157s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2015
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Welterweight
Marcio Alexandre Junior
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
47.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Court McGee Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
15.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
141s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 18, 2016
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Lightweight
Leandro Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
Jason Saggo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 25, 2008
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote
Lightweight
Rich Clementi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.3
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
Gray Maynard Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
36.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
71.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
193.7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 9, 2019
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
Bantamweight
Teruto Ishihara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Kyung Ho Kang Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
74s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2017
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
Welterweight
Ryan LaFlare Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
31.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
103s
Roan Carneiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 6, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi
Lightweight
Michael Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.3s
Reza Madadi Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
73.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
122.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2014
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Lightweight
Joe Proctor
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
32.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Yancy Medeiros Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Light Heavyweight
Azamat Murzakanov Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m18s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.5
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22s
Alonzo Menifield
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
20.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.5s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Julien LeBlanc Gilbert Urbina
Career Record 10-3 8-4
Height — 6' 3"
Weight 185 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach — 75"
Stance — Orthodox
Age 34 30

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Julien LeBlanc Gilbert Urbina
Per Round Average
Strikes — 21
Strike accuracy — 57.9%
Takedowns — 0.6
Takedown accuracy — 44.4%
Sub attempts — 0.1
Control time — 53.6s
Knockdowns — 0.43
Knockdowns absorbed — 0.43
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 50.0% 62.5%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 8
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 25.0% 66.7%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 50.0% 20.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 25.0% 12.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7 14.86
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1 0.14
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 80.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 40.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 40.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 100.0% 48.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 15.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 36.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 2:22 4:24
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,481.9 1,488.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.024 0.068
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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