FightChoice Intelligence Report

Tanner Boser
vs
Jhonata Diniz

Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz

https://fightchoice.app/events/tanner-boser-vs-jhonata-diniz-prediction-2026-10-17

Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
Tanner Boser Jhonata Diniz
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 60.1% 39.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 57.2% 42.8%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 44.9% 55.1%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 40.0% 60.0%
Ensemble 48.8% 51.2%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Jhonata Diniz's weight advantage and higher win rate against Tanner Boser are the strongest drivers for the ensemble prediction. The ensemble favors Jhonata Diniz, despite a slight split among individual models, due to calibrated weighting.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Jhonata Diniz, citing Jhonata Diniz's higher win rate against Tanner Boser and Tanner Boser's lower Elo rating.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Jhonata Diniz, highlighting Jhonata Diniz's advantage in distance strike share, weight, and reach over Tanner Boser.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Jhonata Diniz
51.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

47% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 285 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 285 similar fights By submission *Based on 285 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Tanner Boser 26.2% 15.9% 6.7% 48.8%
Jhonata Diniz 27.5% 16.7% 7.0% 51.2%
285 historical bouts 53.7% 32.6% 13.7% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

285 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 285 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
33% KO/TKO 14% Submission 5:11 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Tanner Boser Jhonata Diniz
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 5, 2012
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
Welterweight
Pascal Krauss
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35.3s
John Hathaway Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100s
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Women's Flyweight
Justine Kish
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
47.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ji Yeon Kim Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
31.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 15, 2021
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Women's Flyweight
Katlyn Cerminara Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42.3
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Viviane Araujo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
45.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.3s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Women's Bantamweight
Norma Dumont Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
61.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
Ketlen Vieira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
30.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
106.3s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 31, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland
Women's Strawweight
Jinh Yu Frey Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Ashley Yoder
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
38.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2025
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.2
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.4
Takedown accuracy
23.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.4s
Umar Nurmagomedov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.8
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
13.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.4s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 12, 2016
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
Featherweight
Frankie Edgar Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
35.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
96s
Jeremy Stephens
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
22.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 25, 2013
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
Light Heavyweight
James Te Huna
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Glover Teixeira Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 25, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.6
Strike accuracy
36.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.8s
Cory Sandhagen Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.6
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.6s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Women's Flyweight
Hannah Goldy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
33.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.3s
Miranda Granger Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Bantamweight
Ricky Simon Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
65.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
123s
Jack Shore
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.5s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Featherweight
Dan Ige Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
24.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2015
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Lightweight
Magomed Mustafaev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Joe Proctor
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
69.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 17, 2016
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Bantamweight
Brad Pickett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
27.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Urijah Faber Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
127.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Women's Flyweight
Joanne Wood Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
49.3
Strike accuracy
61.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
Jessica Eye
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
44.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Tanner Boser Jhonata Diniz
UFC Record 5-6 3-2
Height 6' 2" 6' 4"
Weight 205 lbs. 254 lbs.
Reach 75" 79"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 35 35

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Tanner Boser Jhonata Diniz
Per Round Average
Strikes 22.2 17.3
Strike accuracy 53.5% 58.8%
Takedowns 0 0
Takedown accuracy 0% 0%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 20.8s 6.4s
Knockdowns 0.08 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.04 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 45.5% 81.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 11 11
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 48.3% 74.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.4% 5.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 32.3% 20.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 13.81 16
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.27 0.67
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.71 0.88
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.81 0.89
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.0% 77.8%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.0% 77.8%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 86.5% 93.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.0% 3.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.5% 2.9%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:52 11:16
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,481.4 1,516.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.063 0.072
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

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