FightChoice Intelligence Report
Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier
https://fightchoice.app/events/javad-mahjoub-vs-joel-faglier-prediction-2026-10-17
Heavyweight
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 8, 2026, 00:05 UTC
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble favors Javad Mahjoub, driven by Javad Mahjoub's win rate and Joel Faglier's significant strike accuracy. Despite two models favoring Joel Faglier due to age and physical advantages, calibration and weighting led to the final combined prediction favoring Javad Mahjoub.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Joel Faglier, citing Joel Faglier's age and that Joel Faglier is past prime.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Javad Mahjoub, highlighting Joel Faglier's distance strike share and orthodox stance.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Javad Mahjoub | Joel Faglier |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 25 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
No recorded UFC statistics for Joel Faglier.
| Stat | Javad Mahjoub | Joel Faglier |
|---|---|---|
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 100.0% | — |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 100.0% | — |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 5 | — |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 5 | — |
| head strike share | 0.0% | — |
| body strike share | 0.0% | — |
| leg strike share | 0.0% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 1.374 | — |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.747 | — |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 80.0% | — |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 60.0% | — |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 20.0% | — |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | — |
| distance strike share | 0.0% | — |
| clinch strike share | 0.0% | — |
| ground strike share | 0.0% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | — | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1500 | — |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.049 | — |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | — |
More from UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz Julien LeBlanc vs Nick Galanti Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung YouPut your own money-free bets on Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier
Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.
Create your free account