FightChoice Intelligence Report

Melissa Croden
vs
Chelsea Chandler

Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler

https://fightchoice.app/events/melissa-croden-vs-chelsea-chandler-prediction-2026-10-17

Women's Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Melissa Croden Chelsea Chandler
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 48.6% 51.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 53.8% 46.2%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 63.2% 36.8%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 69.8% 30.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 66.1% 33.9%
Ensemble 65.4% 34.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Melissa Croden's higher win rate and Chelsea Chandler's age are key drivers favoring Melissa Croden. The ENSEMBLE prediction favors Melissa Croden, despite some models noting reach advantages for Chelsea Chandler, due to calibrated weighting.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Melissa Croden, citing her higher win rate and the fact that Chelsea Chandler is past her prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Melissa Croden, noting her orthodox stance and height advantage over Chelsea Chandler.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Melissa Croden
65.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

58% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 285 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 285 similar fights By submission *Based on 285 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Melissa Croden 34.2% 23.6% 7.6% 65.4%
Chelsea Chandler 18.1% 12.5% 4.0% 34.6%
285 historical bouts 52.3% 36.1% 11.6% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

285 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 285 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
36% KO/TKO 12% Submission 5:30 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Melissa Croden Chelsea Chandler
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2010
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Middleweight
Court McGee Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.3s
Ryan Jensen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
35%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2021
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Heavyweight
Carlos Felipe Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
49%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Jake Collier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43.3
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Marvin Vettori
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
28.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Bantamweight
Cody Haddon Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.5
Strike accuracy
81.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
165s
Aoriqileng
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2011
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Middleweight
Constantinos Philippou Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
65.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
Jared Hamman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
36%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 14, 2015
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
Welterweight
Kyle Noke Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
53.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Peter Sobotta
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
Lightweight
Melvin Guillard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
21.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Michael Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 4, 2014
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
Lightweight
Yosdenis Cedeno
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
18.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.3s
Chad Laprise Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
42.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
152s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 26, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Welterweight
Rolando Bedoya
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.3
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Song Kenan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
50.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Middleweight
Thiago Santos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
70.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100s
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.5s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Bantamweight
Jimmie Rivera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Marlon Moraes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
77.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2016
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
Welterweight
Jorge Masvidal Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44
Strike accuracy
69.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38s
Jake Ellenberger
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
35.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Women's Strawweight
Talita Alencar Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
62.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
123.3s
Ariane Carnelossi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2011
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
131.5s
Ryan Bader
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.5
Strike accuracy
20.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2017
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Light Heavyweight
Devin Clark Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
64.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
155s
Jake Collier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
44s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Melissa Croden Chelsea Chandler
Career Record 8-3 7-4
Height — 5' 8"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach — 68"
Stance — Southpaw
Age 35 35

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Melissa Croden Chelsea Chandler
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.1 16.3
Strike accuracy 47.3% 45%
Takedowns 0.7 0.3
Takedown accuracy 50% 60%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1
Control time 73.4s 80.8s
Knockdowns 0.11 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.08
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 87.5% 63.6%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 8 11
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 70.5% 70.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.3% 26.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 13.2% 3.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 10.56 19.75
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.56 0.5
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.45 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.35 0.53
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 5.000 1
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 85.7% 57.1%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 85.7% 28.6%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 28.6%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 25.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 62.1% 61.5%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 17.9% 21.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 20.0% 17.4%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:51 9:15
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,518.7 1,500.2
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.104 0.068
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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