FightChoice Intelligence Report
Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow
https://fightchoice.app/events/chad-anheliger-vs-steven-koslow-prediction-2026-10-17
Bantamweight
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Chad Anheliger
Steven Koslow
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
44.1%
55.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
51.0%
49.0%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
26.5%
73.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
24.3%
75.7%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
27.3%
72.7%
Ensemble
27.4%
72.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Steven Koslow is favored by the ensemble prediction. Key factors driving this include age advantages for Koslow over Anheliger, Koslow's superior cardio defense ratio, and Anheliger being past his prime. While most individual models favor Koslow, the ensemble's confidence is high.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Steven Koslow due to his age advantage over Chad Anheliger, his better win rate, and Chad Anheliger being past his prime.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Steven Koslow, noting his age advantage over Chad Anheliger and their reach difference.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Steven Koslow
72.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
76%
63%
52%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
52%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
9 historical bouts
Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Chad Anheliger | Steven Koslow |
|---|---|---|
|
59%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
|
Fight Performance
|
Gilbert Urbina
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
|
Fight Performance
|
Stephanie Luciano
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
|
Fight Performance
|
John Castaneda
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
|
Fight Performance
|
Sean O'Malley
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Rodolfo Bellato
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
|
Fight Performance
|
Rafael Fiziev
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
|
Fight Performance
|
Marc Diakiese
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
56%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
|
Kai Kamaka III
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
|
Piera Rodriguez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
|
Fight Performance
|
Grant Dawson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
|
Daniel Barez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
|
Fight Performance
|
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Gable Steveson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
|
Fight Performance
|
Laureano Staropoli
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
|
Justin Edwards
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Tale of the Tape
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Chad Anheliger | Steven Koslow |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 13-8 | 6-1 |
| Height | 5' 6" | 5' 7" |
| Weight | 135 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 64" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Age | 39 | 29 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Chad Anheliger | Steven Koslow |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 15.2 | 3.7 |
| Strike accuracy | 44% | 37.9% |
| Takedowns | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Takedown accuracy | 36.4% | 55.6% |
| Sub attempts | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Control time | 36.8s | 93.3s |
| Knockdowns | 0.13 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 60.0% | 88.2% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | -1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 20 | 17 |
| head strike share | 68.9% | 72.7% |
| body strike share | 13.6% | 9.1% |
| leg strike share | 17.5% | 18.2% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 14.2 | 17.67 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 1.07 | 0 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 2.16 | — |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.79 | — |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1 | — |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | No |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | Yes |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 83.3% | 73.3% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 58.3% | 0.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 25.0% | 73.3% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| distance strike share | 75.9% | 72.7% |
| clinch strike share | 12.7% | 9.1% |
| ground strike share | 11.4% | 18.2% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 14:40 | 14:13 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,482.1 | 1484 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.079 | 0.126 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak |
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