FightChoice Intelligence Report

Erin Blanchfield
vs
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

https://fightchoice.app/events/erin-blanchfield-vs-jasmine-jasudavicius-prediction-2026-10-17

Women's Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
Erin Blanchfield Jasmine Jasudavicius
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 55.2% 44.8%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 66.9% 33.1%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 73.6% 26.4%
Ensemble 70.7% 29.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Erin Blanchfield is favored by the ensemble prediction, driven by her strong Elo rating and significant strikes landed advantage. While most individual models align with this, Model ε's prediction is influenced by Erin Blanchfield's Elo rating and significant strikes landed, despite Jasmine Jasudavicius's Elo rating being a factor for that model. The ensemble's final prediction favors Erin Blanchfield.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Erin Blanchfield due to her higher win rate and both fighters being past their prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Erin Blanchfield, highlighting her Elo rating and significant strikes landed, despite Jasudavicius's Elo rating.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Erin Blanchfield
70.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

66% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 285 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 285 similar fights By submission *Based on 285 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Erin Blanchfield 37.2% 22.3% 11.2% 70.7%
Jasmine Jasudavicius 15.4% 9.2% 4.6% 29.3%
285 historical bouts 52.6% 31.6% 15.8% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

285 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 285 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

53% Reached the judges
47% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 16% Submission 5:20 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Erin Blanchfield Jasmine Jasudavicius
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
Lightweight
Chris Padilla Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
39.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
73.7s
Jai Herbert
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
31.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 23, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Welterweight
Andre Fialho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Tim Means Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.7
Strike accuracy
72.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 19, 2025
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Welterweight
Francisco Prado
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
61%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
136.3s
Nikolay Veretennikov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 27, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Welterweight
Jake Matthews
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
94.3s
Neil Magny Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
54.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 8, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Welterweight
Gabriel Bonfim Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.5
Strike accuracy
54.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Randy Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 28, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Lightweight
Jim Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
Francisco Trinaldo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 23, 2013
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Featherweight
Dennis Bermudez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
108s
Matt Grice
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
8.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
69.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
5
Control time (Per Rnd)
105s
Randa Markos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
96s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Bantamweight
Song Yadong Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Henry Cejudo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
50.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Middleweight
Brendan Allen Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
74.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
159.3s
Paul Craig
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 4, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
Heavyweight
Rodrigo Nascimento Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
Don'Tale Mayes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
49.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
Middleweight
Nassourdine Imavov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
66.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
115.7s
Brendan Allen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
57.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
10%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
122s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 27, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Welterweight
Tahir Abdullayev Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64s
Jefferson Nascimento
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 25, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Women's Bantamweight
Pannie Kianzad Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.3
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Bethe Correia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
39.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 1, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Heavyweight
Jovan Leka Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Alexander Poppeck
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Erin Blanchfield Jasmine Jasudavicius
Career Record 14-2 15-4
Height 5' 4" 5' 7"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 66" 68"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 27 37

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Erin Blanchfield Jasmine Jasudavicius
Per Round Average
Strikes 24.7 15.8
Strike accuracy 44.4% 44.5%
Takedowns 0.6 0.8
Takedown accuracy 34% 44.6%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.2
Control time 108.6s 137.4s
Knockdowns 0 0.03
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 93.3% 85.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 15 21
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 70.6% 68.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 15.9% 23.8%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 13.5% 8.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 20.04 15.91
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.19 0.12
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.4 1.15
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.36 0.97
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.43 0.78
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 44.4%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 7.1% 16.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 42.9% 27.8%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 33.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 77.1% 65.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.7% 12.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 16.2% 22.6%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:37 12:34
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,612.5 1,590.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.228 0.358
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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