FightChoice Intelligence Report

Joaquin Buckley
vs
Mike Malott

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott

https://fightchoice.app/events/joaquin-buckley-vs-mike-malott-prediction-2026-10-17

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
Joaquin Buckley Mike Malott
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 58.8% 41.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 45.5% 54.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 38.5% 61.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 59.9% 40.1%
Ensemble 47.9% 52.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Mike Malott's win rate and win streak against Joaquin Buckley are the strongest drivers for the ensemble's prediction. Model β and Model ζ specifically cite these factors, along with Malott's sig strike accuracy. The ensemble favors Mike Malott, despite Model ε leaning towards Joaquin Buckley due to his Elo rating and orthodox stance.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Mike Malott, citing his higher win rate and sig strike accuracy against Joaquin Buckley, and a longer win streak.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Joaquin Buckley, noting his orthodox stance and higher Elo rating, despite Mike Malott's clinch strike share advantage.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Mike Malott
52.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

36% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 285 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 285 similar fights By submission *Based on 285 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Joaquin Buckley 26.2% 15.5% 6.2% 47.9%
Mike Malott 28.5% 16.8% 6.8% 52.1%
285 historical bouts 54.7% 32.3% 13.0% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

285 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 285 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

55% Reached the judges
45% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 13% Submission 4:56 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Joaquin Buckley Mike Malott
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 11, 2012
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
Bantamweight
Ken Stone
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Erik Perez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
81.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 1, 2011
UFC 125: Resolution
Middleweight
Chris Leben
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
28%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Brian Stann Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
105s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2011
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Light Heavyweight
Rich Franklin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Forrest Griffin Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
71.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
116.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 22, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
47%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Marc Diakiese
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
22.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 31, 2026
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Bantamweight
Sulangrangbo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
Lawrence Lui Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
46.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
99.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 30, 2022
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Lightweight
Drew Dober Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
Rafael Alves
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
54.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.7s
Chris Duncan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Welterweight
Keita Nakamura
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
28.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33s
Anthony Rocco Martin Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 6, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Middleweight
Caio Borralho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.2
Strike accuracy
39.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Nassourdine Imavov Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.8s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2012
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
Lightweight
Henry Martinez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
12.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
Bernardo Magalhaes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
19.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 17, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov
Lightweight
Stevie Ray
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.3s
Kajan Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 26, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Welterweight
Kyle Noke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
31.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Omari Akhmedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
31.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
128.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal
Bantamweight
Jose Quinonez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
56.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54.5s
Nathaniel Wood Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.5s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 19, 2010
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale
Middleweight
Chris Leben Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.5s
Aaron Simpson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.5
Strike accuracy
55.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
112s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 2, 2019
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
Featherweight
Julio Arce
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
25.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.7s
Hakeem Dawodu Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
39.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Joaquin Buckley Mike Malott
UFC Record 11-6 7-1
Height 5' 10" 6' 1"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 76" 73"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 32 34

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Joaquin Buckley Mike Malott
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.1 16.7
Strike accuracy 36.4% 52.3%
Takedowns 0.4 0.4
Takedown accuracy 45.2% 57.1%
Sub attempts 0.0 0.2
Control time 29.2s 39.9s
Knockdowns 0.20 0.28
Knockdowns absorbed 0.09 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 64.7% 93.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 4
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 17 15
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 62.1% 60.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 27.9% 19.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.0% 19.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 13.76 12
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.38 0.17
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.72 0.22
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.47 0.84
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 1
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 72.7% 85.7%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 72.7% 42.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 42.9%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 75.2% 84.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.8% 1.7%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 18.9% 14.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:45 9:33
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,586.1 1,595.9
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.192 0.162
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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