FightChoice Intelligence Report
Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr
https://fightchoice.app/events/mandel-nallo-vs-nate-landwehr-prediction-2026-10-17
Lightweight
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:06 UTC
Model Breakdown
Mandel Nallo
Nate Landwehr
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
57.6%
42.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
8.5%
91.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
56.3%
43.7%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
57.8%
42.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
57.7%
42.3%
Ensemble
44.9%
55.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble prediction favors Nate Landwehr, driven by Mandel Nallo absorbing more knockdowns and a significant age advantage. Despite two models favoring Mandel Nallo, Nate Landwehr's strong performance in key metrics like knockdowns absorbed and cardio sig ratio led to the final combined prediction.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Mandel Nallo, citing Mandel Nallo's age advantage and Nate Landwehr's past prime status.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Mandel Nallo, highlighting Mandel Nallo's distance strike share and Nate Landwehr's absorbed sig strikes.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Nate Landwehr
55.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
62%
41%
33%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
33%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 187 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 187 similar fights | By submission *Based on 187 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandel Nallo | 20.4% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 44.9% |
| Nate Landwehr | 25.0% | 16.8% | 13.3% | 55.1% |
| 187 historical bouts | 45.5% | 30.5% | 24.1% | 100.0% |
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
187 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 187 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
45%
Reached the judges
55%
Ended early
30%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
5:55
Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
48
Rnd 2
38
Rnd 3
13
Rnd 4
0
Rnd 5
3
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Mandel Nallo | Nate Landwehr |
|---|---|---|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
|
Fight Performance
|
Andre Lima
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos
|
Luana Santos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
|
Fight Performance
|
Steve Erceg
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
|
Rose Namajunas
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
|
Michael McDonald
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
|
Makhmud Muradov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
|
Will Brooks
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve
|
Fight Performance
|
Siyar Bahadurzada
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
|
Tom Aspinall
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa
|
Abus Magomedov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
|
Marcus McGhee
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
|
Fight Performance
|
Kevin Holland
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
|
Fight Performance
|
Michael Johnson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
|
Edgar Chairez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
|
Fight Performance
|
Jai Herbert
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Tale of the Tape
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Mandel Nallo | Nate Landwehr |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 14-4 | 18-8 |
| Height | 6' 0" | 5' 9" |
| Weight | 155 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach | 75" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 37 | 38 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Mandel Nallo | Nate Landwehr |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 16 | 23.8 |
| Strike accuracy | 51.6% | 45.8% |
| Takedowns | 0 | 0.2 |
| Takedown accuracy | 0% | 41.7% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 10s | 29.7s |
| Knockdowns | 1 | 0.04 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 2 | 0.29 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 62.5% | 65.5% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | -3 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 8 | 29 |
| head strike share | 81.2% | 73.2% |
| body strike share | 6.2% | 14.0% |
| leg strike share | 12.5% | 12.8% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 19 | 25.54 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0.38 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | — | 0.63 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | — | 0.43 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | — | 5.000 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 100.0% | 63.2% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 40.0% | 47.4% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 60.0% | 15.8% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 70.0% |
| distance strike share | 93.8% | 76.2% |
| clinch strike share | 6.2% | 19.4% |
| ground strike share | 0.0% | 4.4% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 2:05 | 9:21 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,483.1 | 1,489.0 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.021 | 0.261 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Decline |
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