FightChoice Intelligence Report

Marc-Andre Barriault
vs
Kyle Daukaus

Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus

https://fightchoice.app/events/marc-andre-barriault-vs-kyle-daukaus-prediction-2026-10-17

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
Marc-Andre Barriault Kyle Daukaus
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 45.9% 54.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 68.2% 31.8%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 32.4% 67.6%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 17.5% 82.5%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 25.5% 74.5%
Ensemble 32.8% 67.2%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Kyle Daukaus is favored by the ensemble prediction. Key factors driving this include Marc-Andre Barriault absorbing significantly more strikes and being considered past his prime, alongside a general age advantage for Daukaus. While most individual models lean towards Daukaus, the ensemble's final prediction is based on calibrated weighting of these diverse model outputs.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Kyle Daukaus, citing his advantages in age, significant strikes absorbed, and being past prime compared to Marc-Andre Barriault.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Kyle Daukaus, noting his southpaw stance and better significant strikes absorbed, though Marc-Andre Barriault has an orthodox advantage and better Elo rating.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Kyle Daukaus
67.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

41% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 178 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 178 similar fights By submission *Based on 178 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Marc-Andre Barriault 18.2% 9.8% 4.8% 32.8%
Kyle Daukaus 37.4% 20.0% 9.8% 67.2%
178 historical bouts 55.6% 29.8% 14.6% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

178 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 178 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

56% Reached the judges
44% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 15% Submission 7:10 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Marc-Andre Barriault Kyle Daukaus
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Lightweight
John Makdessi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Francisco Trinaldo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
43.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Light Heavyweight
Rogerio Nogueira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ryan Bader Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.7
Strike accuracy
74.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
226s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 9, 2018
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
Welterweight
Colby Covington Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.8
Strike accuracy
33.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.4
Takedown accuracy
38.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
151.2s
Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
53%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.8s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2015
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
45.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.7s
Benson Henderson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.7
Strike accuracy
55.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2014
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
Lightweight
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
26.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.3s
Myles Jury Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
38.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 29, 2010
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
Light Heavyweight
Quinton Jackson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.7s
Rashad Evans Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
154.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 14, 2011
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
Middleweight
Ed Herman Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
3
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Kyle Noke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
92.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
205s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 2, 2008
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon
Lightweight
Joe Lauzon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.5
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.5s
Kenny Florian Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.5
Strike accuracy
47.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
111.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Featherweight
Mike Grundy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
Makwan Amirkhani Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 14, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Welterweight
Court McGee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
26.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
Michael Chiesa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 30, 2016
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Bantamweight
Jimmie Rivera Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44s
Iuri Alcantara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
38.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 17, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises
Featherweight
Billy Quarantillo Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
64.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
173.3s
Gabriel Benitez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Lightweight
Fares Ziam Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
64.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
90s
Claudio Puelles
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.3
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
53.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2021
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Featherweight
Darrick Minner
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
99.3s
Ryan Hall Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
81.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
112.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 2, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Flyweight
Steve Erceg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45.3
Strike accuracy
53.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
Tim Elliott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Marc-Andre Barriault Kyle Daukaus
UFC Record 6-10-1 4-5-1
Height 6' 1" 6' 2"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 74" 76"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 36 33

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Marc-Andre Barriault Kyle Daukaus
Per Round Average
Strikes 25.5 11.6
Strike accuracy 47% 49.5%
Takedowns 0.1 0.5
Takedown accuracy 28.6% 23.7%
Sub attempts 0.0 0.4
Control time 28s 99.2s
Knockdowns 0.10 0.12
Knockdowns absorbed 0.08 0.29
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 37.5% 44.4%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 20.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 16 9
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 71.3% 73.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.7% 13.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.9% 13.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 27.27 13.69
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.59 0.25
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.35 0.58
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.78 0.4
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 25.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 16.7% 50.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 40.0% 60.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 66.6% 71.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 27.5% 11.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.0% 17.6%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:23 7:14
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,457.1 1,496.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.049 0.052
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

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