FightChoice Intelligence Report

Jamey-Lyn Horth
vs
Katlyn Cerminara

Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Katlyn Cerminara

https://fightchoice.app/events/jamey-lyn-horth-vs-katlyn-cerminara-prediction-2026-10-17

Women's Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jamey-Lyn Horth Katlyn Cerminara
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 54.6% 45.4%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 55.8% 44.2%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 59.3% 40.7%
Ensemble 63.6% 36.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Jamey-Lyn Horth. Key factors driving this prediction include Katlyn Cerminara's age and past prime status, alongside Jamey-Lyn Horth's superior win rate and advantage in absorbed significant strikes. Despite some models favoring Katlyn Cerminara based on specific metrics like Elo rating or distance strike share, the combined analysis leans towards Jamey-Lyn Horth.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her better win rate and age advantage over Katlyn Cerminara, who is also considered past her prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Jamey-Lyn Horth, based on her edge in absorbed significant strikes and ground strike share, though Katlyn Cerminara has a higher Elo rating and distance strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Jamey-Lyn Horth
63.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

63% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 285 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 285 similar fights By submission *Based on 285 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Jamey-Lyn Horth 36.8% 17.9% 8.9% 63.6%
Katlyn Cerminara 21.1% 10.2% 5.1% 36.4%
285 historical bouts 57.9% 28.1% 14.0% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

285 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 285 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

58% Reached the judges
42% Ended early
28% KO/TKO 14% Submission 6:03 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jamey-Lyn Horth Katlyn Cerminara
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 29, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Women's Strawweight
Julia Polastri
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
Loopy Godinez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
150s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 6, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Lightweight
Mason Jones Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m18s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.5
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
110.5s
Bolaji Oki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.5s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 25, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.6
Strike accuracy
36.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.8s
Cory Sandhagen Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.6
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.6s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2017
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
Middleweight
Elias Theodorou
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.3s
Brad Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
43.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 26, 2011
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
Heavyweight
Jon Madsen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mike Russow Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
46.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
102.5s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Flyweight
Kyoji Horiguchi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
Chico Camus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
33%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 14, 2026
UFC Freedom 250
Middleweight
Bo Nickal Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
194s
Kyle Daukaus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Middleweight
Gegard Mousasi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
70.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
143s
Uriah Hall Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Bantamweight
Benardo Sopaj Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
66.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Timmy Cuamba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
36.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.5s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 13, 2012
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
Welterweight
Rick Story
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Demian Maia Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
134s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 8, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Bantamweight
Daniel Marcos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
119.5s
Miles Johns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
51.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Women's Flyweight
Miesha Tate
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41.7s
Lauren Murphy Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 31, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber
Women's Featherweight
Macy Chiasson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
51.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Ketlen Vieira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
202s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Women's Strawweight
Ketlen Souza Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
76.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Ariane Carnelossi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Bantamweight
Jack Shore
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.5s
Ricky Simon Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
65.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
123s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Jamey-Lyn Horth Katlyn Cerminara
UFC Record 4-3 11-6
Height 5' 7" 5' 9"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 66" 68"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 36 37

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jamey-Lyn Horth Katlyn Cerminara
Per Round Average
Strikes 18.4 22.5
Strike accuracy 47.6% 34.9%
Takedowns 0.3 0.1
Takedown accuracy 42.9% 15.6%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1
Control time 42.7s 23.3s
Knockdowns 0 0.02
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.02
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 80.0% 64.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 15 17
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 52.9% 61.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 33.1% 24.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.0% 14.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.79 22.04
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.37 0.53
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.09 1.19
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.61 0.99
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 1
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 16.7% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 33.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 78.0% 87.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 21.1% 7.8%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.9% 5.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:09 14:11
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,516.5 1,569.9
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.120 0.116
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

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