FightChoice Intelligence Report
Mickey Gall vs Sedriques Dumas
https://fightchoice.app/events/mickey-gall-vs-sedriques-dumas-prediction-2026-09-26
Middleweight
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Sep 26, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 22, 2026, 00:04 UTC
Model Breakdown
Mickey Gall
Sedriques Dumas
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
48.5%
51.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
66.5%
33.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
51.5%
48.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
24.3%
75.7%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
41.1%
58.9%
Ensemble
45.2%
54.8%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Sedriques Dumas is favored by the ensemble prediction. Key factors driving this include Mickey Gall's higher sig strikes absorbed and being past prime, as well as the reach advantage for Dumas. Despite some individual models favoring Mickey Gall based on specific stats like Elo rating or knockdowns, the combined model output leans towards Dumas.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Sedriques Dumas, citing Dumas's advantages in sig strikes absorbed, being past prime, win rate, and age.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Sedriques Dumas, noting Dumas's reach advantage and Mickey Gall's orthodox stance, though Sedriques Dumas has a higher leg strike share.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Sedriques Dumas
54.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
60%
40%
34%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
34%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
6 historical bouts
Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Mickey Gall | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
|
77%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
|
Fight Performance
|
Kaue Fernandes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
|
Brian Ortega
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
|
Brian Ortega
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
|
Fight Performance
|
Chris Gutierrez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
|
Fight Performance
|
Yair Rodriguez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
|
Ihor Potieria
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
|
Fight Performance
|
Mike Pyle
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
|
Fight Performance
|
Megan Anderson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
|
Jalin Turner
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
|
Ottman Azaitar
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Marco Tulio
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Ode Osbourne
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
|
Fight Performance
|
Muslim Salikhov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
53%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
|
Fight Performance
|
Alex Oliveira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
53%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang
|
Zhang Weili
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Tale of the Tape
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Mickey Gall | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 6-7 | 3-5-1 |
| Height | 6' 2" | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 170 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach | 74" | 79" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Age | 34 | 31 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Mickey Gall | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 14.6 | 7.9 |
| Strike accuracy | 49.6% | 44.3% |
| Takedowns | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Takedown accuracy | 32% | 27.8% |
| Sub attempts | 0.4 | 0 |
| Control time | 43s | 82.9s |
| Knockdowns | 0.08 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 46.2% | 76.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -4 | -3 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 13 | 25 |
| head strike share | 78.7% | 46.2% |
| body strike share | 15.8% | 19.7% |
| leg strike share | 5.5% | 34.1% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 19.76 | 11.25 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.4 | 0.75 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.69 | 0.28 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.17 | 0 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | Yes | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 83.3% | 57.9% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 42.1% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 83.3% | 15.8% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 42.9% | 83.3% |
| distance strike share | 76.8% | 76.5% |
| clinch strike share | 11.2% | 5.3% |
| ground strike share | 12.0% | 18.2% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 8:03 | 8:28 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,473.1 | 1,463.9 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.055 | 0.132 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Decline |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gall | 45.2% | 1.68 | 59.5% | -24.1% |
| Sedriques Dumas | 54.8% | 2.24 | 44.6% | +22.8% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
10%
of bankroll
on Sedriques Dumas at 2.30 (DraftKings)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Mickey Gall | Sedriques Dumas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -179 | 1.56 | +112 | 2.12 |
| DraftKings | -147 | 1.68 | +124 | 2.24 |
| BetMGM | -164 | 1.61 | +135 | 2.35 |
| Bovada | -147 | 1.68 | +127 | 2.27 |
| BetOnline | -147 | 1.68 | +126 | 2.26 |
Odds captured Sep 24, 2026, 12:02 AM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Mickey Gall
Sedriques Dumas
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