FightChoice Intelligence Report
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert
https://fightchoice.app/events/matheus-camilo-vs-jai-herbert-prediction-2026-10-10
Lightweight
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Oct 10, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 2, 2026, 18:08 UTC
Model Breakdown
Matheus Camilo
Jai Herbert
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
51.5%
48.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
37.5%
62.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
73.3%
26.7%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
82.5%
17.5%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
68.1%
31.9%
Ensemble
68.3%
31.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble favors Matheus Camilo, driven by his significant advantages in age and past prime status over Jai Herbert, along with a notable edge in takedowns landed. Despite Jai Herbert holding a reach advantage, Matheus Camilo's superior win rate and Elo rating solidify the prediction.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Matheus Camilo, citing his win rate and advantage in age and past prime status against Jai Herbert.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Matheus Camilo, pointing to his edge in age, ground strike share, and takedowns landed versus Jai Herbert.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Matheus Camilo
68.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
70%
47%
40%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
40%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 140 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 140 similar fights | By submission *Based on 140 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Camilo | 33.7% | 19.0% | 15.6% | 68.3% |
| Jai Herbert | 15.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 31.7% |
| 140 historical bouts | 49.3% | 27.9% | 22.9% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Matheus Camilo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 11-3 | 14-6 |
| Height | 5' 10" | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach | 69" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 25 | 38 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
140 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 140 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
49%
Reached the judges
51%
Ended early
28%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
4:18
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
40
Rnd 2
17
Rnd 3
14
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Matheus Camilo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
|
Karol Rosa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
|
Tabatha Ricci
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
|
Niko Price
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
|
Sergio Pettis
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
|
Omari Akhmedov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates
|
Fight Performance
|
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
|
Fight Performance
|
Aiemann Zahabi
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
|
Fight Performance
|
MarQuel Mederos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
|
Curtis Blaydes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
|
Gabriel Bonfim
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
|
Yazmin Jauregui
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
|
Fight Performance
|
Bruno Silva
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
|
Fight Performance
|
Guram Kutateladze
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
|
Ramazan Temirov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
|
Sean Brady
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Matheus Camilo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 9.3 | 14.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 43.1% | 41.6% |
| Takedowns | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Takedown accuracy | 53.8% | 21.4% |
| Sub attempts | 0.2 | 0 |
| Control time | 59.2s | 44.3s |
| Knockdowns | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 83.3% | 79.2% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 2 | 1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 6 | 24 |
| head strike share | 64.3% | 56.0% |
| body strike share | 17.9% | 27.9% |
| leg strike share | 17.9% | 16.1% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 12.83 | 14.81 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0.43 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.61 | 0.83 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 2.31 | 0.57 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.33 | 5.000 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 60.0% | 84.2% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 40.0% | 57.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 20.0% | 26.3% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| distance strike share | 91.1% | 81.9% |
| clinch strike share | 1.8% | 12.1% |
| ground strike share | 7.1% | 6.0% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 8:25 | 10:14 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,517.0 | 1,497.8 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.080 | 0.134 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Decline |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Camilo | 68.3% | 1.54 | 64.9% | +5.2% |
| Jai Herbert | 31.7% | 2.54 | 39.4% | -19.5% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
12%
of bankroll
on Matheus Camilo at 1.54 (DraftKings)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Matheus Camilo | Jai Herbert | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| DraftKings | -185 | 1.54 | +154 | 2.54 |
| FanDuel | -192 | 1.52 | +148 | 2.48 |
| BetOnline | -179 | 1.56 | +157 | 2.57 |
Odds captured Oct 2, 2026, 6:05 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Matheus Camilo
Jai Herbert
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