FightChoice Intelligence Report
Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan
https://fightchoice.app/events/niko-price-vs-leon-shahbazyan-prediction-2026-10-10
Welterweight
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Oct 10, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 2, 2026, 18:07 UTC
Model Breakdown
Niko Price
Leon Shahbazyan
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
51.0%
49.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
59.6%
40.4%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
46.7%
53.3%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
30.2%
69.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
52.7%
47.3%
Ensemble
46.9%
53.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble prediction favors Leon Shahbazyan, despite a split among individual models. Key factors driving the prediction include Leon Shahbazyan's advantages in age and absorbed significant strikes, while Niko Price's higher sig strike accuracy and takedown accuracy were also noted. The final prediction is based on calibrated weighting of these diverse model inputs.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Leon Shahbazyan, citing his advantage in age, absorbed significant strikes, and win rate over Niko Price.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Niko Price, based on Leon Shahbazyan's higher distance, clinch, and ground strike shares, and Niko Price's edge in head strike share.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Leon Shahbazyan
53.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
56%
41%
34%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
34%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 286 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights | By submission *Based on 286 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price | 22.1% | 15.7% | 9.0% | 46.9% |
| Leon Shahbazyan | 25.1% | 17.8% | 10.2% | 53.1% |
| 286 historical bouts | 47.2% | 33.6% | 19.2% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Niko Price | Leon Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 8-11-2 | 0-1 |
| Height | 6' 0" | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach | 76" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 37 | 30 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
286 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
47%
Reached the judges
53%
Ended early
34%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
4:59
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
76
Rnd 2
53
Rnd 3
21
Rnd 4
0
Rnd 5
1
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Niko Price | Leon Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
|
81%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
|
Fight Performance
|
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
79%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
|
Fight Performance
|
Alexia Thainara
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
78%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne
|
Aiemann Zahabi
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
75%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
|
Fight Performance
|
Ramazan Temirov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
|
Fight Performance
|
Yana Santos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
|
Davey Grant
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
|
Fight Performance
|
Tabatha Ricci
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
|
Fight Performance
|
Muhammad Saidov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
|
Guram Kutateladze
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
|
Fight Performance
|
Iasmin Lucindo
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba
|
Muslim Salikhov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
|
Volkan Oezdemir
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo
|
Carlos Hernandez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
|
Fight Performance
|
Gokhan Saricam
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
|
Fight Performance
|
Tyrell Fortune
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Niko Price | Leon Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 21.2 | 0 |
| Strike accuracy | 43.3% | 0% |
| Takedowns | 0.3 | 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 30% | 0% |
| Sub attempts | 0.2 | 0 |
| Control time | 36.9s | 0s |
| Knockdowns | 0.12 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.12 | 1 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 42.1% | 57.1% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -4 | -1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 19 | 7 |
| head strike share | 63.3% | 0.0% |
| body strike share | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| leg strike share | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 21.97 | 6 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.58 | 0 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.89 | — |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.5 | — |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.33 | — |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 25.0% | 100.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 81.8% | 66.7% |
| distance strike share | 76.0% | 0.0% |
| clinch strike share | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| ground strike share | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 7:39 | 0:23 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,465.2 | 1484 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.103 | 0.024 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
Recommended stake
1%
of bankroll
on Leon Shahbazyan at 1.71 (BetOnline)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Niko Price | Leon Shahbazyan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| BetOnline | +120 | 2.20 | -141 | 1.71 |
Odds captured Oct 2, 2026, 6:05 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Niko Price
Leon Shahbazyan
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