FightChoice Intelligence Report

Francisco Prado
vs
Ismael Bonfim

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim

https://fightchoice.app/events/francisco-prado-vs-ismael-bonfim-prediction-2026-10-10

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Oct 10, 2026

In This Report

Prediction Intel

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 24, 2026, 06:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Francisco Prado Ismael Bonfim
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 76.4% 23.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 47.3% 52.7%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 60.8% 39.2%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 58.3% 41.7%
Ensemble 65.3% 34.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble favors Francisco Prado, driven by Prado's age advantage and Elo rating edge over Ismael Bonfim. Despite some models favoring Ismael Bonfim based on specific factors like Prado's recent win rate, the combined prediction leans towards Prado due to a weighted calibration of all models.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Francisco Prado, citing Prado's age and Elo rating edge over Ismael Bonfim.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Francisco Prado, pointing to Prado's age and Elo rating, and Bonfim's ground strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Francisco Prado
65.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

46% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 285 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 285 similar fights By submission *Based on 285 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Francisco Prado 34.1% 22.2% 8.9% 65.3%
Ismael Bonfim 18.2% 11.8% 4.8% 34.7%
285 historical bouts 52.3% 34.0% 13.7% 100.0%
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Matchup Intel

How Similar Fights Ended

285 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 285 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
34% KO/TKO 14% Submission 4:59 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Francisco Prado Ismael Bonfim
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 17, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
Featherweight
Cole Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Manvel Gamburyan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
37.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
71.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
157.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 14, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
Featherweight
Mads Burnell Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
58.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
183.7s
Mike Santiago
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
64.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
90.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Flyweight
Luis Gurule Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
49.7
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
Daniel Barez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Middleweight
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.5s
Thiago Santos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
70.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 14, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
Featherweight
Myles Jury
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chad Mendes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
63%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 9, 2020
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Welterweight
Anthony Pettis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Donald Cerrone
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 16, 2025
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Middleweight
Michael Page Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Jared Cannonier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
35.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
164.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Women's Flyweight
Jessica Eye
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
44.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101s
Joanne Wood Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
49.3
Strike accuracy
61.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 24, 2015
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson
Light Heavyweight
Phil Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
27.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.3s
Ryan Bader Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 16, 2016
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
Women's Bantamweight
Raquel Pennington Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
57.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Bethe Correia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
38.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 2, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
Lightweight
Diego Sanchez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
Takanori Gomi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 27, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane
Lightweight
Thiago Moises Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
29%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alexander Hernandez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
24.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 20, 2013
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
Lightweight
Myles Jury Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.5
Strike accuracy
20.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68s
Ramsey Nijem
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
21.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 14, 2012
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
Welterweight
Seth Baczynski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
32.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Mike Pierce Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
200.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 5, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Bantamweight
Felipe Arantes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
38.3s
Erik Perez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
142s

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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape

Stat Francisco Prado Ismael Bonfim
Career Record 12-5 20-7
Height 5' 10" 5' 8"
Weight 170 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 69" 71"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 24 30

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Statistics Intel

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Francisco Prado Ismael Bonfim
Per Round Average
Strikes 18.2 22.8
Strike accuracy 43.6% 54.5%
Takedowns 0.3 0.4
Takedown accuracy 19% 33.3%
Sub attempts 0.3 0
Control time 46.2s 22.6s
Knockdowns 0.06 0.10
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.10
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 70.6% 79.2%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 20.0% 20.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -4 -3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 17 24
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 50.2% 64.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 22.3% 21.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 27.5% 14.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 21.31 19.8
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.56 0.3
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.75 0.39
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.13 0.21
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 0.33
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 68.4%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 47.4%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 21.1%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 79.4% 90.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.9% 8.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.7% 1.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:11 7:43
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,445.2 1,474.9
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.097 0.147
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

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