FightChoice Intelligence Report
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza
https://fightchoice.app/events/loopy-godinez-vs-ketlen-souza-prediction-2026-10-10
Women's Strawweight
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Oct 10, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 2, 2026, 18:08 UTC
Model Breakdown
Loopy Godinez
Ketlen Souza
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
51.0%
49.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
53.1%
46.9%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
49.0%
51.0%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
36.8%
63.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
56.9%
43.1%
Ensemble
48.7%
51.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Ketlen Souza's win streak and reach advantage are key drivers, alongside Loopy Godinez's lower sig strike accuracy and age. The ENSEMBLE favors Ketlen Souza (51%), despite a split among individual models, due to calibrated weighting.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Ketlen Souza, citing her superior win rate, less time past her prime, younger age, higher sig strike accuracy, and younger age.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Loopy Godinez, noting Ketlen Souza's lower ground strike share and shorter reach, despite Ketlen Souza's distance strike share and weight class favoring her.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Ketlen Souza
51.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
83%
69%
63%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
63%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 286 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights | By submission *Based on 286 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 27.6% | 15.0% | 6.1% | 48.7% |
| Ketlen Souza | 29.1% | 15.8% | 6.5% | 51.3% |
| 286 historical bouts | 56.6% | 30.8% | 12.6% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Loopy Godinez | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 9-6 | 4-3 |
| Height | 5' 2" | 5' 3" |
| Weight | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach | 61" | 63" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 33 | 32 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
286 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
57%
Reached the judges
43%
Ended early
31%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
6:35
Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
56
Rnd 2
44
Rnd 3
23
Rnd 4
1
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Loopy Godinez | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
|
75%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
|
Michel Pereira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
|
Gegard Mousasi
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
|
Fight Performance
|
Alessandro Costa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
|
Fight Performance
|
Dustin Jacoby
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
|
Alatengheili
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
|
Fight Performance
|
Alexander Volkanovski
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
|
Misha Cirkunov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
|
Cody Stamann
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
|
Aljamain Sterling
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till
|
Fight Performance
|
Tom Aspinall
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
|
Fight Performance
|
Ross Pearson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
|
Cody Garbrandt
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
|
Fight Performance
|
Felicia Spencer
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
|
Fight Performance
|
Raquel Pennington
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos
|
Drew Dober
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Loopy Godinez | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 21.6 | 18.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 49.4% | 57.1% |
| Takedowns | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Takedown accuracy | 42.6% | 13.3% |
| Sub attempts | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Control time | 82.3s | 53.1s |
| Knockdowns | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 60.0% | 77.3% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | 2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 15 | 22 |
| head strike share | 78.0% | 54.6% |
| body strike share | 16.1% | 27.5% |
| leg strike share | 5.9% | 17.9% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 19.27 | 17.2 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.27 | 0.87 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.2 | 0.92 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.67 | 0.49 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.35 | 1 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 22.2% | 64.7% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 52.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 22.2% | 11.8% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 16.7% | 60.0% |
| distance strike share | 83.7% | 85.0% |
| clinch strike share | 10.3% | 13.6% |
| ground strike share | 6.1% | 1.5% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 13:21 | 9:29 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,546.3 | 1,518.5 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.196 | 0.282 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Decline |
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