FightChoice Intelligence Report

Ernesta Kareckaite
vs
Melissa Gatto

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto

https://fightchoice.app/events/ernesta-kareckaite-vs-melissa-gatto-prediction-2026-10-10

Women's Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Oct 10, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 2, 2026, 18:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
Ernesta Kareckaite Melissa Gatto
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 54.5% 45.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 38.1% 61.9%
Ensemble 45.3% 54.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Melissa Gatto is favored by the ensemble prediction. The most influential factors across models include Melissa Gatto's superior absorption of significant strikes and her higher win rate against Ernesta Kareckaite. While some models noted Ernesta Kareckaite's age and past prime, the combined prediction leans towards Gatto due to these statistical advantages.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Melissa Gatto, citing her higher win rate and better absorption of significant strikes against Ernesta Kareckaite.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Melissa Gatto, highlighting her better absorption of significant strikes and greater height advantage over Ernesta Kareckaite.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Melissa Gatto
54.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

68% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 286 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights By submission *Based on 286 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Ernesta Kareckaite 20.8% 15.5% 9.0% 45.3%
Melissa Gatto 25.0% 18.7% 10.9% 54.7%
286 historical bouts 45.8% 34.3% 19.9% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Ernesta Kareckaite Melissa Gatto
Career Record 5-2-1 9-3-2
Height 5' 9" 5' 5"
Weight 125 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 71" 69"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 30

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

286 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

46% Reached the judges
54% Ended early
34% KO/TKO 20% Submission 6:27 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Ernesta Kareckaite Melissa Gatto
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio
Featherweight
Darren Elkins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
53s
Ricardo Lamas Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
56.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 28, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Featherweight
Hacran Dias
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71s
Ricardo Lamas Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
35.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
110s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 9, 2020
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Carla Esparza Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
43.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
10%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 7, 2009
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine
Heavyweight
Shane Carwin Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Gabriel Gonzaga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 4, 2018
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2
Flyweight
Henry Cejudo Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.2
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
27.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.4s
Demetrious Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.2
Strike accuracy
60.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.2s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 26, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Heavyweight
Waldo Cortes Acosta Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Lukasz Brzeski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Lightweight
Christos Giagos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
22.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Charles Oliveira Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
46.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
Lightweight
Norman Parke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
30.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
125.3s
Francisco Trinaldo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
34.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 31, 2013
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Featherweight
Dustin Poirier Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
58.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
150.3s
Erik Koch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
69.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 23, 2015
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
Lightweight
John Makdessi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Donald Cerrone Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.5
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2012
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
Welterweight
Seth Baczynski Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
19.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Simeon Thoresen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
31.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
Welterweight
Alex Garcia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.7s
Court McGee Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
58%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
132s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 26, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
Heavyweight
Don'Tale Mayes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
26.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Ciryl Gane Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 27, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping
Bantamweight
Brad Pickett Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
28.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66.7s
Francisco Rivera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
41.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 27, 2014
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Bantamweight
Dominick Cruz Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
74.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23s
Takeya Mizugaki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Ernesta Kareckaite Melissa Gatto
Per Round Average
Strikes 28.1 15.6
Strike accuracy 40.1% 49.7%
Takedowns 0.2 0.5
Takedown accuracy 66.7% 27.3%
Sub attempts 0 0.1
Control time 41.7s 80.8s
Knockdowns 0 0.06
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 50.0% 72.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 50.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 4 11
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 77.1% 54.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.2% 28.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 4.7% 17.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 24.44 12
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.67 0.41
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.63 0.62
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.28 0.72
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 50.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 25.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 86.6% 84.9%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.3% 9.8%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.2% 5.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 12:44
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,484.7 1,498.1
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.049 0.068
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline
Market IntelClick here to expand

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Ernesta Kareckaite 45.3% 2.42 41.3% +9.7%
Melissa Gatto 54.7% 1.59 62.9% -13.1%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Ernesta Kareckaite Melissa Gatto
US Decimal US Decimal
DraftKings +142 2.42 -169 1.59
FanDuel +136 2.36 -175 1.57
BetOnline +145 2.45 -164 1.61

Odds captured Oct 2, 2026, 6:05 PM

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