FightChoice Intelligence Report

Malcolm Wellmaker
vs
Otari Tanzilovi

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi

https://fightchoice.app/events/malcolm-wellmaker-vs-otari-tanzilovi-prediction-2026-10-10

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Oct 10, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 2, 2026, 18:07 UTC

Model Breakdown
Malcolm Wellmaker Otari Tanzilovi
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 54.4% 45.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 57.6% 42.4%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 47.7% 52.3%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 30.0% 70.0%
Ensemble 45.2% 54.8%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Otari Tanzilovi's superior takedowns landed and win rate are the most influential factors across the models. The ENSEMBLE prediction favors Otari Tanzilovi (55%), reflecting a consensus among the individual models.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Otari Tanzilovi, citing Otari Tanzilovi's age and takedowns landed edge over Malcolm Wellmaker.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Otari Tanzilovi, highlighting Otari Tanzilovi's clinch strike share and win rate, and Malcolm Wellmaker's orthodox stance.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Otari Tanzilovi
54.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m15s (6m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

50% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Malcolm Wellmaker Otari Tanzilovi
Career Record 10-2 10-2
Height 5' 10" 5' 10"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 71" 70"
Stance Switch Orthodox
Age 32 28

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

9 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Malcolm Wellmaker Otari Tanzilovi
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi
Middleweight
Lyoto Machida Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.6
Strike accuracy
27.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38s
Gegard Mousasi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.2
Strike accuracy
34%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.6s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 31, 2010
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
Middleweight
Yushin Okami Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
69.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.5s
Lucio Linhares
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
18.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Welterweight
Drew Dober Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
48.3
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.7s
Frank Camacho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.3
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.3s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 2, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.5
Strike accuracy
70.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.5s
Claudio Ribeiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
15.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.5s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 7, 2019
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Lightweight
Ottman Azaitar Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
50.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Teemu Packalen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 12, 2025
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Featherweight
Julian Erosa Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
54
Strike accuracy
74%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s
Darren Elkins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 19, 2013
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Heavyweight
Roy Nelson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
20.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Daniel Cormier Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.3s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 18, 2009
UFC 97: Redemption
Middleweight
Anderson Silva Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.8
Strike accuracy
67.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.8s
Thales Leites
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
18.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
7.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.6s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 4, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
Lightweight
Rafael Fiziev Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Brad Riddell
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 25, 2010
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
Heavyweight
Matt Mitrione Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Joey Beltran
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
33.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41.7
Strike accuracy
45.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alatengheili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
32.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 24, 2026
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Flyweight
Charles Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
32%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alex Perez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 25, 2025
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
Umar Nurmagomedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
59.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3.7
Takedown accuracy
78.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
215.3s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 23, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade
Bantamweight
Cameron Else
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Aoriqileng Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 7, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
catch/open/unknown
Wang Cong Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.7s
Eduarda Moura
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
162s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Malcolm Wellmaker Otari Tanzilovi
Per Round Average
Strikes 17.6 19.3
Strike accuracy 53.5% 65.2%
Takedowns 0 1.7
Takedown accuracy 0% 55.6%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 11.4s 84.7s
Knockdowns 0.29 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 75.0% 0.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 0.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 8 3
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 40.7% 65.5%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 46.3% 25.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 13.0% 8.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 16.14 25.33
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1.14 0
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.35 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.97 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 77.2% 70.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 22.8% 29.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:11 15:00
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,496.4 1484
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.083 0.008
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Early
Market IntelClick here to expand

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Malcolm Wellmaker 45.2% 1.49 67.1% -32.6%
Otari Tanzilovi 54.8% 2.70 37.0% +47.9%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 14% of bankroll on Otari Tanzilovi at 2.70 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Malcolm Wellmaker Otari Tanzilovi
US Decimal US Decimal
DraftKings -204 1.49 +170 2.70
FanDuel -213 1.47 +164 2.64
BetOnline -204 1.49 +177 2.77

Odds captured Oct 2, 2026, 6:05 PM

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