FightChoice Intelligence Report
Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris
https://fightchoice.app/events/allen-frye-jr-vs-rj-harris-prediction-2026-10-10
Heavyweight
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Oct 10, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 2, 2026, 18:07 UTC
Model Breakdown
Allen Frye Jr.
RJ Harris
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
68.5%
31.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
69.0%
31.0%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
37.3%
62.7%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
42.2%
57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
48.8%
51.2%
Ensemble
55.4%
44.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
RJ Harris's superior reach, higher win rate, and greater number of total fights and significant strikes landed are key drivers favoring him. Despite these individual model leanings, the ENSEMBLE prediction favors Allen Frye Jr. due to calibrated weighting.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors RJ Harris, citing RJ Harris's reach advantage and RJ Harris's higher win rate against Allen Frye Jr.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors RJ Harris, based on RJ Harris's superior ground strike share and RJ Harris's reach advantage.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Allen Frye Jr.
55.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
78%
64%
58%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
58%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 37 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 37 similar fights | By submission *Based on 37 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Frye Jr. | 28.5% | 16.5% | 10.5% | 55.4% |
| RJ Harris | 22.9% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 44.6% |
| 37 historical bouts | 51.4% | 29.7% | 18.9% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Allen Frye Jr. | RJ Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 6-1 | 6-0 |
| Weight | 265 lbs. | 258 lbs. |
| Stance | — | Orthodox |
| Age | 28 | 28 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
37 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 37 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
51%
Reached the judges
49%
Ended early
30%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
3:08
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
12
Rnd 2
5
Rnd 3
1
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Allen Frye Jr. | RJ Harris |
|---|---|---|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Rafael Cavalcante
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares
|
Fight Performance
|
Brian Foster
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
|
Fight Performance
|
Karine Silva
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
61%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 77: Hostile Territory
|
Fight Performance
|
Tim Sylvia
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
61%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares
|
David Branch
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
60%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
|
Fight Performance
|
Patrick Cummins
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
60%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
|
Fight Performance
|
Montel Jackson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
60%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
|
Fight Performance
|
Tracy Cortez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
60%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
|
Fight Performance
|
Alex Garcia
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
59%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba
|
Fight Performance
|
Kurt Holobaugh
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
59%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 69: Shootout
|
Matt Serra
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
59%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
|
Fight Performance
|
Sodiq Yusuff
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
59%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar
|
Fight Performance
|
Matt Brown
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier
|
Rafael Dos Anjos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
|
Fight Performance
|
Arnold Allen
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Allen Frye Jr. | RJ Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 11 | 15 |
| Strike accuracy | 38.4% | 57.7% |
| Takedowns | 0 | 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 0% | 0% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Control time | 158.3s | 10s |
| Knockdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 66.7% | 91.7% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | 7 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 3 | 12 |
| head strike share | 51.5% | 80.0% |
| body strike share | 36.4% | 0.0% |
| leg strike share | 12.1% | 20.0% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 21.33 | 11 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 100.0% | 90.9% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 100.0% | 45.5% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 45.5% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| distance strike share | 57.6% | 46.7% |
| clinch strike share | 42.4% | 0.0% |
| ground strike share | 0.0% | 53.3% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 15:00 | 1:40 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1484 | 1,515.3 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.014 | 0.067 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Early | Peak |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Frye Jr. | 55.4% | 2.85 | 35.1% | +57.9% |
| RJ Harris | 44.6% | 1.44 | 69.4% | -35.8% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
16%
of bankroll
on Allen Frye Jr. at 2.85 (DraftKings)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Allen Frye Jr. | RJ Harris | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| DraftKings | +185 | 2.85 | -227 | 1.44 |
| FanDuel | +180 | 2.80 | -233 | 1.43 |
| BetOnline | +186 | 2.86 | -222 | 1.45 |
Odds captured Oct 2, 2026, 6:05 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Allen Frye Jr.
RJ Harris
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