FightChoice Intelligence Report
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan
https://fightchoice.app/events/brendan-allen-vs-christian-leroy-duncan-prediction-2026-10-10
Middleweight
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Oct 10, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 19, 2026, 00:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Brendan Allen
Christian Leroy Duncan
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
42.6%
57.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
48.0%
52.0%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
38.3%
61.7%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
42.2%
57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
38.3%
61.7%
Ensemble
37.7%
62.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Christian Leroy Duncan's switch stance and recent win rate are key drivers for the ensemble's prediction. The ensemble favors Christian Leroy Duncan, despite a split among individual models where Brendan Allen's Elo rating and past prime status were considered significant factors by some.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his edge in significant strikes absorbed and accuracy, along with a reach advantage.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Christian Leroy Duncan, noting his switch stance and higher Elo rating, even though Brendan Allen has a higher Elo rating.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Christian Leroy Duncan
62.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (25m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
85%
68%
60%
55%
50%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
Rnd 4
Rnd 5
50%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 139 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 139 similar fights | By submission *Based on 139 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 21.2% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 37.7% |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 35.0% | 15.7% | 11.7% | 62.3% |
| 139 historical bouts | 56.1% | 25.2% | 18.7% | 100.0% |
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
139 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 139 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
56%
Reached the judges
44%
Ended early
25%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
4:34
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
32
Rnd 2
15
Rnd 3
13
Rnd 4
0
Rnd 5
1
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Brendan Allen | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
|
Francis Marshall
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo
|
Andre Fili
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
|
Rose Namajunas
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
|
Sam Hughes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
|
Fight Performance
|
Sumudaerji
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot
|
Fight Performance
|
Charles Jourdain
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
|
Fight Performance
|
Christian Leroy Duncan
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Marlon Vera
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
|
Fight Performance
|
Ben Nguyen
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
|
Fight Performance
|
Vinicius Oliveira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
|
Sean Woodson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
|
Glover Teixeira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
|
Elias Silverio
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
|
Rory MacDonald
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Demian Maia
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Tale of the Tape
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Brendan Allen | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 15-4 | 8-2 |
| Height | 6' 2" | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach | 75" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Age | 30 | 31 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Brendan Allen | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 17.4 | 20.4 |
| Strike accuracy | 52.3% | 58% |
| Takedowns | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Takedown accuracy | 42.3% | 20% |
| Sub attempts | 0.3 | 0 |
| Control time | 82.8s | 56s |
| Knockdowns | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.04 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 78.9% | 82.1% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 3 | 5 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 19 | 39 |
| head strike share | 65.8% | 49.5% |
| body strike share | 20.6% | 16.8% |
| leg strike share | 13.5% | 33.7% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 17.4 | 10.83 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.6 | 0.36 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.5 | 0 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | No |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | Yes |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 60.0% | 71.9% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 13.3% | 46.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 46.7% | 25.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 77.9% | 74.0% |
| clinch strike share | 6.7% | 19.4% |
| ground strike share | 15.3% | 6.6% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 11:44 | 10:33 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,647.0 | 1,593.0 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.350 | 0.297 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
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