FightChoice Intelligence Report

Shamil Gaziev
vs
Tallison Teixeira

Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira

https://fightchoice.app/events/shamil-gaziev-vs-tallison-teixeira-prediction-2026-11-21

Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Nov 21, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As we gear up for UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling, the heavyweight clash between Shamil Gaziev and Tallison Teixeira promises to be a thrilling encounter. Gaziev enters the octagon with a solid 15-3 record and impressive finishing ability, boasting a staggering 90.9% finish rate. At 6'4" and 265 lbs, he’s no stranger to the power game, averaging 11.8 significant strikes per round while absorbing only 20.21. His ability to control the fight with an average of 96.1 seconds of grappling control per round gives him a tactical edge, reminiscent of when Pannie Kianzad faced Alexis Davis at UFC 263, where experience and control played crucial roles.

On the other side, Tallison Teixeira, standing tall at 6'7" and weighing in at 258 lbs, carries a promising 9-2 record and a notable 67.4% striking accuracy. Despite a less extensive fight history, his youthful energy at just 26 years old could make him a dynamic threat. However, Teixeira's lack of experience in high-stakes bouts may put him at a disadvantage against Gaziev's seasoned approach, particularly in terms of absorbing strikes and the overall fight duration, which has seen Teixeira average just 4:12. With a notable odds gap highlighting Gaziev as the favorite, fans can expect a clash of experience versus youthful exuberance that could echo the strategic battles seen in the past.

#ShamilGaziev #TallisonTeixeira #UFCFightNight #Heavyweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 31, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Shamil Gaziev Tallison Teixeira
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 52.4% 47.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 75.2% 24.8%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 38.6% 61.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 42.0% 58.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 26.8% 73.2%
Ensemble 51.0% 49.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Shamil Gaziev, despite a majority of individual models leaning towards Tallison Teixeira. This outcome is due to model calibration and weighting, with Gaziev's advantage in total fights and average fight duration being key drivers. Teixeira's edge in significant strikes absorbed and age also played a role in the combined prediction.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Tallison Teixeira, citing Teixeira's edge in significant strikes absorbed and age, despite Gaziev's higher win rate.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Tallison Teixeira, highlighting Teixeira's advantages in age and reach, even though Gaziev has a height advantage.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Shamil Gaziev
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

31% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 288 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 288 similar fights By submission *Based on 288 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Shamil Gaziev 25.1% 17.3% 8.1% 50.5%
Tallison Teixeira 24.6% 17.0% 7.9% 49.5%
288 historical bouts 49.7% 34.4% 16.0% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Shamil Gaziev Tallison Teixeira
Career Record 15-3 9-2
Height 6' 4" 6' 7"
Weight 265 lbs. 258 lbs.
Reach 78" 83"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 36 26

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

288 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 288 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

50% Reached the judges
50% Ended early
34% KO/TKO 16% Submission 4:48 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Shamil Gaziev Tallison Teixeira
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2021
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Women's Bantamweight
Alexis Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Pannie Kianzad Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41.3
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 8, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Flyweight
Neil Seery
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
39.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Kyoji Horiguchi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
49.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
115.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 8, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Women's Flyweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.6
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.8s
Marina Rodriguez Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.2s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
Lightweight
Al Iaquinta Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Rodrigo Damm
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
32.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Lightweight
Joel Alvarez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Joe Duffy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
86.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
86s
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
35%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 20, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Heavyweight
Aleksei Oleinik
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38
Strike accuracy
65.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
82s
Alistair Overeem Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
87.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 4, 2017
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
Bantamweight
TJ Dillashaw Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
24.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
Cody Garbrandt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
34%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Welterweight
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
80%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
198s
Bryan Barberena
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.5s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 6, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
Welterweight
Court McGee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66.7s
Alex Morono Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
27%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 23, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.5s
Marina Rodriguez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
68.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.5s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
Welterweight
Erick Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
27.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
Jordan Mein Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
40.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
157.3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Bantamweight
Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.5s
Song Yadong Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 25, 2013
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
Bantamweight
Brian Bowles
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
George Roop Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos
Heavyweight
Roque Martinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
52.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57.3s
Don'Tale Mayes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
43.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Shamil Gaziev Tallison Teixeira UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 11.8 10.3 13.2
Strike accuracy 45.3% 67.4% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.3 0.5 0.4
Takedown accuracy 33.3% 30% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0 0.2
Control time 96.1s 71.8s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.14 0.17 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.21 0.33 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 81.5% 60.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 27 5 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 71.5% 75.8% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 26.7% 21.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 1.8% 3.2% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 20.21 9.67 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.07 0 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.02 0.37 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.04 1.5 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.33 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 90.9% 66.7% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 72.7% 66.7% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 18.2% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 80.0% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 72.1% 48.4% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 19.4% 11.3% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.5% 40.3% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:56 4:12 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,522.4 1,507.3 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.288 0.025 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline —

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