FightChoice Intelligence Report

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Jared Cannonier vs Ikram Aliskerov

https://fightchoice.app/events/jared-cannonier-vs-ikram-aliskerov-prediction-2026-11-21

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Nov 21, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

In the heart of the Octagon, Jared Cannonier and Ikram Aliskerov are set to clash in a middleweight showdown that promises to highlight the contrasting trajectories of their careers. At 42, Cannonier brings a wealth of experience with an 11-10 UFC record, but he's currently in a decline, having lost two of his last three fights. In stark contrast, the 33-year-old Aliskerov is on the rise, boasting a record of 5-1 in the UFC and riding a three-fight win streak. With Aliskerov's striking accuracy at a sizzling 60.7%, compared to Cannonier's 49.4%, fans can expect an exciting display of striking prowess.

This matchup echoes the dynamics seen in fights like Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang, where youth and momentum can often overwhelm experience. Aliskerov's superior striking stats, including a higher rate of significant strikes landed per round (23.3 vs. 19.5) and a staggering takedown accuracy of 76.9%, suggests he may be the one dictating the pace and range of this fight. The physical dimensions are close, but with Cannonier's 77-inch reach giving him a slight edge, he’ll need to leverage that to keep the advancing Aliskerov at bay. As history tells us, in the fight game, the youth often rises while the veterans must defend their legacy—this bout is set to be a critical moment for both fighters.

#JaredCannonier #IkramAliskerov #UFCFightNight #Middleweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 31, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jared Cannonier Ikram Aliskerov
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 45.1% 54.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 43.2% 56.8%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 17.6% 82.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 14.7% 85.3%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 29.3% 70.7%
Ensemble 25.7% 74.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Ikram Aliskerov, driven by multiple models citing Jared Cannonier's age and past prime status as key factors. Despite some models noting Jared Cannonier's advantages in control time and stance, the combined prediction leans towards Ikram Aliskerov due to the overwhelming age and prime indicators.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Ikram Aliskerov, citing Jared Cannonier's age and past prime status, along with Ikram Aliskerov's win rate.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Ikram Aliskerov, pointing to Jared Cannonier's age and orthodox stance, and Ikram Aliskerov's Elo rating.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Ikram Aliskerov
74.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

43% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Jared Cannonier Ikram Aliskerov
UFC Record 11-10 5-1
Height 5' 11" 6' 0"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 77" 76"
Stance Switch Southpaw
Age 42 33

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

18 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jared Cannonier Ikram Aliskerov
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 23, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Light Heavyweight
Johnny Walker Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
74.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
42.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40.5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 13, 2012
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
Light Heavyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
27.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Glover Teixeira Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42.5
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
209.5s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 17, 2019
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
53.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
66%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Francis Marshall Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
28.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
83.5s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 28, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Women's Strawweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
66.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alexia Thainara Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
54.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
191.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 6, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
Heavyweight
Lukasz Brzeski Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
56.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
146.3s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Heavyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Jose Montanha Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
61s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 10, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez
Women's Strawweight
Ashley Yoder Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
42.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.7s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Lightweight
Mike Davis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
37.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 14, 2011
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
Lightweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.7
Strike accuracy
31.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Benson Henderson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
207.7s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 18, 2016
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Middleweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Krzysztof Jotko Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
30.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.5s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60s
Joanderson Brito Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
159.7s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 23, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Welterweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Taiyilake Nueraji Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
71.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
191s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 4, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik
Featherweight
Damon Jackson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
60.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
208.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
45.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54.7s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jared Cannonier Ikram Aliskerov UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.5 23.3 13.2
Strike accuracy 49.4% 60.7% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.2 1 0.4
Takedown accuracy 45.5% 76.9% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0.1 0.2
Control time 34.1s 93.4s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.11 0.30 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.13 0.10 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 52.4% 94.7% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 20.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 3 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 21 19 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 62.6% 64.8% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.2% 24.9% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.2% 10.3% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 19.95 15.6 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.39 0 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.38 0.23 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.42 0.32 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 2 0.75 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 63.6% 61.1% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 63.6% 38.9% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 22.2% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 30.0% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 80.9% 81.5% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 11.7% 2.1% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.4% 16.3% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:57 6:50 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,544.4 1,574.2 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.303 0.183 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —

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