FightChoice Intelligence Report

Asu Almabayev
vs
Kyoji Horiguchi

Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi

https://fightchoice.app/events/asu-almabayev-vs-kyoji-horiguchi-prediction-2026-11-21

Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Nov 21, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

Asu Almabayev enters the octagon with a solid UFC record of 7-1, taking on the seasoned Kyoji Horiguchi, who boasts a 9-2 mark. Both fighters are evenly matched in weight at 125 lbs, but Almabayev, standing at 5'4", is slightly shorter than Horiguchi, who stands at 5'5". Despite this, Almabayev has a slight reach disadvantage at 65 inches compared to Horiguchi's 66 inches. This matchup is intriguing as it showcases the clash of Almabayev's grappling prowess against Horiguchi's striking efficiency, with the latter delivering an average of 17.3 strikes per round compared to Almabayev's 10.4.

Almabayev excels in controlling the fight, averaging 133.2 seconds of control time per round, and shows a knack for takedowns with a 1.4 per round average. However, Horiguchi's striking accuracy at 47.6% keeps him competitive, and his recent win rate mirrors Almabayev's at 80%. This bout has echoes of past encounters, like Marcio Barbosa versus Ryan Kuse at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, where the more grappling-focused fighter prevailed. With both fighters at their peak, this clash promises to be a strategic battle of styles that could swing either way.

#AsuAlmabayev #KyojiHoriguchi #UFCFightNight #Flyweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 31, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Asu Almabayev Kyoji Horiguchi
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 74.6% 25.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 70.1% 29.9%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 74.6% 25.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 75.0% 25.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 63.0% 37.0%
Ensemble 79.3% 20.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Asu Almabayev's superior takedowns landed and control time, along with Kyoji Horiguchi being past prime and older, are the strongest drivers for the ENSEMBLE prediction favoring Asu Almabayev. Despite some models favoring Kyoji Horiguchi based on his Elo rating, calibration and weighting led to the final combined prediction.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Asu Almabayev, citing Asu Almabayev's lower sig strikes absorbed and fewer knockdowns absorbed, and both fighters being past their prime and older.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Asu Almabayev, based on Asu Almabayev's higher Elo rating, more takedowns landed, and Kyoji Horiguchi's older age.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Asu Almabayev
79.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

64% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 288 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 288 similar fights By submission *Based on 288 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Asu Almabayev 39.4% 27.3% 12.7% 79.3%
Kyoji Horiguchi 10.3% 7.1% 3.3% 20.7%
288 historical bouts 49.7% 34.4% 16.0% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Asu Almabayev Kyoji Horiguchi
UFC Record 7-1 9-2
Height 5' 4" 5' 5"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 65" 66"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 32 36

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

288 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 288 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

50% Reached the judges
50% Ended early
34% KO/TKO 16% Submission 5:49 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Asu Almabayev Kyoji Horiguchi
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 22, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Featherweight
Ryan Kuse
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
23.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Marcio Barbosa Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Women's Flyweight
Tereza Bleda
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
80s
Jamey-Lyn Horth Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
72.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Women's Strawweight
Cynthia Calvillo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.3s
Cortney Casey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 13, 2024
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Bantamweight
Deiveson Figueiredo Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
68.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
111.5s
Cody Garbrandt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 5, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori
Light Heavyweight
Ovince Saint Preux
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jamahal Hill Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
53.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2016
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Lightweight
Lando Vannata Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
John Makdessi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
84.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Welterweight
Nikolay Veretennikov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Khaos Williams Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2024
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
43%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
87.7s
Henry Cejudo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2013
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
Featherweight
Chan Sung Jung
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
14.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.8s
Jose Aldo Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 2m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 15, 2026
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.5
Strike accuracy
61.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
91s
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
50.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.5s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 18, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
Middleweight
Antonio Carlos Junior
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
36.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
127.7s
Ian Heinisch Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
58.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2016
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Cody Garbrandt Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 2, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Bantamweight
Colby Thicknesse Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
39.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
60.3s
Vince Morales
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 7, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Lightweight
Chris Padilla Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
64.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rongzhu
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.5
Strike accuracy
55.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 7, 2009
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine
Heavyweight
Gabriel Gonzaga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
Shane Carwin Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Asu Almabayev Kyoji Horiguchi UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 10.4 17.3 13.2
Strike accuracy 51.4% 47.6% 43.9%
Takedowns 1.4 0.5 0.4
Takedown accuracy 45.8% 40.5% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.4 0.0 0.2
Control time 133.2s 62.2s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.04 0.19 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.03 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 92.0% 81.8% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 25 11 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 53.8% 75.1% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 24.4% 16.2% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.8% 8.6% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 8.78 9.91 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.22 0.59 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.4 0.88 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.35 0.91 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.41 0.67 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.9% 33.3% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 13.0% 22.2% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 47.8% 11.1% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 64.7% 70.1% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.1% 13.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 25.2% 16.9% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:03 13:53 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,589.1 1,597.1 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.269 0.143 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —

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