FightChoice Intelligence Report

Dan Hooker
vs
Brian Ortega

Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega

https://fightchoice.app/events/dan-hooker-vs-brian-ortega-prediction-2026-11-21

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Nov 21, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

When Dan Hooker steps into the octagon against Brian Ortega at UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling, fans are in for a thrilling clash of styles. Hooker, standing tall at 6'0" with a reach of 75", brings a striking advantage with a per-round average of 21.2 significant strikes, showcasing an impressive accuracy of 48.6%. In contrast, Ortega, though shorter at 5'8" with a reach of 69", has built a reputation for his grappling prowess and submission skills, boasting a staggering 87.5% finish rate. While Hooker holds a slight edge in striking and control time, Ortega's ability to capitalize on submissions could turn the tide in this lightweight bout.

This matchup has echoes of past fights, particularly when Alexander Gustafsson faced Mauricio Rua, where size and striking came up against grappling finesse. Similarly, Ortega's submission game could be the wildcard that disrupts Hooker's striking rhythm. With both fighters in the decline phase of their careers, every second counts, and the stakes are high. The odds are leaning towards Hooker, but with Ortega's finishing potential, fans should expect a fierce battle that could go either way.

#DanHooker #BrianOrtega #UFCFightNight #Lightweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 31, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Dan Hooker Brian Ortega
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 88.4% 11.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 77.8% 22.2%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 48.0% 52.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 56.7% 43.3%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 64.5% 35.5%
Ensemble 77.6% 22.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Dan Hooker is favored by the ensemble prediction, driven by his advantage in sig strikes absorbed and reach over Brian Ortega. Despite some models noting Dan Hooker's age and past prime status, the combined prediction leans towards him due to a confluence of factors including his striking defense and reach.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Dan Hooker, citing his lower sig strikes absorbed and longer reach advantage over Brian Ortega.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Dan Hooker, highlighting his switch stance, reach advantage, and Brian Ortega's higher sig strikes absorbed.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Dan Hooker
77.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

52% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 288 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 288 similar fights By submission *Based on 288 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Dan Hooker 41.8% 24.8% 11.0% 77.6%
Brian Ortega 12.1% 7.2% 3.2% 22.4%
288 historical bouts 53.8% 31.9% 14.2% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Dan Hooker Brian Ortega
UFC Record 14-11 8-5-1
Height 6' 0" 5' 8"
Weight 155 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 75" 69"
Stance Switch Switch
Age 36 35

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

288 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 288 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 14% Submission 6:33 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Dan Hooker Brian Ortega
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2012
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
Alexander Gustafsson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 10, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Women's Bantamweight
Daria Zhelezniakova
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alice Pereira Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
245s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Women's Strawweight
Sam Hughes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
Stephanie Luciano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 27, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Lightweight
Chris Padilla Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
80s
James Llontop
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 23, 2016
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Women's Strawweight
Felice Herrig Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
43.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
60s
Kailin Curran
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
29.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 5, 2016
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Featherweight
Darren Elkins Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.7
Strike accuracy
68%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
63.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
174.3s
Chas Skelly
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 28, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Welterweight
Niko Price
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
25.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Vicente Luque Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.5
Strike accuracy
54%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2020
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Welterweight
Neil Magny Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
58.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
Anthony Rocco Martin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
99s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 1, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
64.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.5
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
133.5s
Cody East
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.5s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 25, 2007
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon
Middleweight
Nate Marquardt Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
54.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
167.7s
Dean Lister
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 18, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
Featherweight
Danny Chavez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ricardo Ramos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 18, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Welterweight
Donald Cerrone Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
49.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Yancy Medeiros
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
31.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 26, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
Lightweight
Jai Herbert
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
28%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Renato Moicano Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
63.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.5
Takedown accuracy
71.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
227.5s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 1, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
25.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Aleksandar Rakic Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 20, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Shamil Abdurakhimov Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Dan Hooker Brian Ortega UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.2 17.7 13.2
Strike accuracy 48.6% 37.3% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.2 0.3 0.4
Takedown accuracy 33.3% 25% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.3 0.2
Control time 45.7s 23.8s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.16 0.12 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.05 0.05 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 56.0% 61.5% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 20.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -3 -2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 25 13 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 61.5% 71.3% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.2% 18.1% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.3% 10.6% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 21.66 29.93 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.43 0.37 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.45 0.61 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.51 0.42 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 5 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes Yes —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 64.3% 87.5% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 37.5% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 14.3% 50.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 63.6% 40.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 84.6% 88.6% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.4% 6.5% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.0% 4.9% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:50 14:45 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,551.4 1,564.0 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.216 0.163 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline —

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