FightChoice Intelligence Report

Jiri Prochazka
vs
Navajo Stirling

Jiri Prochazka vs Navajo Stirling

https://fightchoice.app/events/jiri-prochazka-vs-navajo-stirling-prediction-2026-11-21

Light Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Nov 21, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Jiri Prochazka and Navajo Stirling prepare to throw down at UFC Fight Night on November 21, the dynamics of their matchup promise a thrilling clash of experience versus ambition. Prochazka, with a career record of 32-6-1, is a veteran of the octagon, while Stirling enters undefeated at 11-0, showcasing a perfect win rate of 100%. This fight mirrors the narratives seen in past encounters like Ricardo Almeida vs. Kendall Grove at UFC 101, where seasoned fighters faced off against rising stars, often leading to surprising results.

Standing just an inch apart, Prochazka holds a slight reach advantage at 80 inches compared to Stirling's 79 inches, but the striking stats tell a different story. Stirling averages 29.9 significant strikes per round, outpacing Prochazka's 23.6, while also demonstrating superior grappling control time. However, Prochazka's finishing prowess is unmatched, boasting a staggering finish rate of 96.4%, including an 85.7% knockout win rate. As both fighters step into the cage, history suggests that the blend of Prochazka's experience against Stirling's youthful enthusiasm could lead to an explosive showdown, and fans are eager to see which fighter's narrative will prevail.

#JiriProchazka #NavajoStirling #UFCFightNight #LightHeavyweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 31, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jiri Prochazka Navajo Stirling
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 25.1% 74.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 53.0% 47.0%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 34.7% 65.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 18.2% 81.8%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 23.3% 76.7%
Ensemble 24.9% 75.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Navajo Stirling is favored by the ensemble prediction, driven by strong indicators like absorbing fewer significant strikes and having a win streak. While Jiri Prochazka shows an edge in sig strike accuracy, the combined model weighting and calibration strongly favor Navajo Stirling.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Navajo Stirling, citing Navajo Stirling absorbing fewer significant strikes and having a win streak, while Jiri Prochazka absorbed more significant strikes.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Navajo Stirling, highlighting Navajo Stirling's higher Elo rating and reach, and that Navajo Stirling absorbed fewer significant strikes.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Navajo Stirling
75.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m15s (6m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

34% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 195 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 195 similar fights By submission *Based on 195 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Jiri Prochazka 13.4% 7.6% 3.8% 24.9%
Navajo Stirling 40.5% 23.1% 11.6% 75.1%
195 historical bouts 53.8% 30.8% 15.4% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Jiri Prochazka Navajo Stirling
Career Record 32-6-1 11-0
Height 6' 3" 6' 4"
Weight 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach 80" 79"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 34 28

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

195 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 195 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 15% Submission 6:02 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jiri Prochazka Navajo Stirling
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2009
UFC 101: Declaration
Middleweight
Kendall Grove
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
40.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.7s
Ricardo Almeida Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
61.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
223.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2011
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
Welterweight
Martin Kampmann Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
25.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
98.3s
Rick Story
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 27, 2010
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Welterweight
Ben Saunders
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
56.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.3s
Jon Fitch Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
72.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
245s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 22, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Bantamweight
Thomas Almeida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
Jimmie Rivera Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2016
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Light Heavyweight
Misha Cirkunov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
Nikita Krylov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
55.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
93s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 19, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
Featherweight
Chan Sung Jung Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.4
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.6
Control time (Per Rnd)
122s
Dan Ige
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.6s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
48
Strike accuracy
62.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Andreas Stahl
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 17, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov
Light Heavyweight
Jimi Manuwa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
33.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Jan Blachowicz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.3
Strike accuracy
50.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2023
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
78.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.7s
Trevin Jones
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
29%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
33s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 7, 2010
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
Welterweight
Dustin Hazelett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rick Story Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.5
Strike accuracy
68.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
154s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 18, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Lightweight
Thibault Gouti
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
123.7s
Sage Northcutt Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 31, 2026
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Middleweight
Torrez Finney
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
35.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
Jacob Malkoun Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
64.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
105.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 21, 2009
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2
Welterweight
Josh Koscheck Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
35.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
119.5s
Anthony Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 2, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Arman Tsarukyan Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m04s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 24, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
Heavyweight
Antonio Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.5s
Roy Nelson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jiri Prochazka Navajo Stirling UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 23.6 29.9 13.2
Strike accuracy 55.5% 54.2% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.1 0.3 0.4
Takedown accuracy 60% 36.4% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0 0.2
Control time 30.6s 52.6s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.23 0.14 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.18 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 84.8% 100.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 11 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 33 11 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 76.6% 52.7% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 15.6% 31.7% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.7% 15.5% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 23.77 11.5 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.27 0.71 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.36 0.76 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.2 0.76 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 5.000 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 96.4% 63.6% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 85.7% 63.6% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.7% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 77.6% 74.7% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.5% 5.7% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 14.9% 19.6% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:15 10:54 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,565.8 1,589.1 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.322 0.116 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —

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