FightChoice Intelligence Report

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Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos

https://fightchoice.app/events/aljamain-sterling-vs-kevin-vallejos-prediction-2026-11-21

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Nov 21, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

As Aljamain Sterling steps into the octagon against the undefeated Kevin Vallejos at UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling, fans are treated to a classic clash of experience versus unblemished ambition. Sterling, with a seasoned UFC record of 18-5, boasts a striking accuracy of 52.6% and a control time of nearly 94 seconds per round, showcasing his tactical prowess and grappling expertise. At 37 years old, he embodies the peak of mixed martial arts savvy, but can he outmaneuver the youthful fire of the 24-year-old Vallejos, who is riding a remarkable 100% win rate with an 85.7% finish rate?

Vallejos comes into this bout with momentum, having finished 85.7% of his wins, primarily through knockouts, which gives him a striking edge with 22.9 significant strikes landed per round compared to Sterling’s 20.1. This fight has echoes of past matchups like Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha at UFC 126, where a veteran faced a rising star, ultimately leading to a victory for the experienced fighter. However, Vallejos' relentless pace and knockout power could turn this fight into a highlight reel moment. With a significant odds gap favoring Sterling, the stakes are high, but the excitement lies in the unpredictable nature of the fight game.

#AljamainSterling #KevinVallejos #UFCFightNight #Featherweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 31, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Aljamain Sterling Kevin Vallejos
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 59.3% 40.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 42.4% 57.6%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 30.6% 69.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 18.8% 81.2%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 47.3% 52.7%
Ensemble 37.4% 62.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Kevin Vallejos, driven by a strong consensus across models regarding age and win rate advantages over Aljamain Sterling. Model ζ's perfect score, emphasizing Kevin Vallejos's switch stance and cardio takedown ratio, also contributes significantly to the final prediction, despite some models noting Aljamain Sterling's higher Elo rating and better striking absorption.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Kevin Vallejos due to his age advantage and higher win rate over Aljamain Sterling, with both fighters being past their prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Kevin Vallejos, citing his age and reach advantage over Aljamain Sterling, though Sterling holds a higher Elo rating and better striking absorption.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Kevin Vallejos
62.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

56% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Aljamain Sterling Kevin Vallejos
UFC Record 18-5 4-0
Height 5' 7" 5' 7"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 71" 68"
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 37 24

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

9 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Aljamain Sterling Kevin Vallejos
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2011
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Welterweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
27.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.7s
Jake Ellenberger Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.7s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 7, 2009
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens
Lightweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
111.5s
Joe Lauzon Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
64.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
155.5s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 7, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov
Bantamweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
37.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.7s
Sergio Pettis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
33.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Welterweight
Sam Patterson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 9, 2024
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Welterweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
46.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
63.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
102.3s
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie
Women's Strawweight
Felice Herrig Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
24.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 2, 2017
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Women's Strawweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90s
Tecia Pennington Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.7
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
78.3s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Middleweight
Brendan Allen Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
69%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
253s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
80%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 22, 2012
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
Welterweight
Brian Ebersole Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
66.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
165.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 20, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Heavyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38
Strike accuracy
65.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
82s
Alistair Overeem Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
87.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Lightweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
38.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
112.3s
Joaquim Silva Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
28.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 31, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland
Welterweight
Jason Witt Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
42.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
44.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
112.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 28, 2017
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Middleweight
Eric Spicely Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2023
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Middleweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
54.5
Strike accuracy
49.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.5s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Aljamain Sterling Kevin Vallejos UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 20.1 22.9 13.2
Strike accuracy 52.6% 46.6% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.8 0.3 0.4
Takedown accuracy 32.2% 33.3% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.2 0 0.2
Control time 93.9s 29.3s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 0.57 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.07 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 78.3% 100.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 7 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 23 7 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 50.0% 67.5% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 31.5% 22.5% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.6% 10.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 10.14 14.29 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.39 0.14 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.62 0.46 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.58 0.97 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.59 5.000 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 85.7% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 11.1% 85.7% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 22.2% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 40.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 66.9% 75.6% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 14.9% 12.5% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 18.3% 11.9% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:23 7:03 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,681.0 1,566.1 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.519 0.082 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —

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