FightChoice Intelligence Report

Aleksandre Topuria
vs
Santiago Luna

Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna

https://fightchoice.app/events/aleksandre-topuria-vs-santiago-luna-prediction-2026-11-21

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Nov 21, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As the bantamweight clash between Aleksandre Topuria and Santiago Luna approaches at UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling, fans are buzzing over the intriguing dynamics of this matchup. Topuria, with a solid 7-1 record, holds a slight edge in striking accuracy at 55% compared to Luna's 53.1%. However, the real story lies in the striking output, where Luna significantly outpaces Topuria with an impressive 22.1 strikes landed per round. This striking volume could be a game-changer, especially considering that both fighters are orthodox stand-up artists. The reach advantage for Luna at 74 inches, versus Topuria's 68 inches, may further amplify his striking efficiency and allow him to stay out of danger.

The historical context adds another layer to this bout. It brings to mind the clash between Alex Morono and Zak Ottow back in 2019, where Morono's striking volume overwhelmed Ottow, resulting in a decisive finish. Topuria must find a way to leverage his grappling skills, as he has shown a better control time of 73.7 seconds per round, but with Luna's takedown defense improving significantly, it could be a tall order. With both fighters on the rise—Topuria in the early stages of his career and Luna in his peak—the stakes are high, and fans can expect a thrilling encounter that may well be a precursor to future title contention.

#AleksandreTopuria #SantiagoLuna #UFCFightNight #Bantamweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 31, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Aleksandre Topuria Santiago Luna
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 32.7% 67.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 51.5% 48.5%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 53.7% 46.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 42.0% 58.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 36.3% 63.7%
Ensemble 39.4% 60.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Santiago Luna, driven by consistent advantages in age and reach across multiple models. Despite Aleksandre Topuria having a win streak and distance striking edge in some models, the combined prediction leans towards Santiago Luna due to the aggregate of factors.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Santiago Luna, citing his age advantage over Aleksandre Topuria and his own age, while also noting Santiago Luna's reach edge.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Santiago Luna, highlighting his age advantage over Aleksandre Topuria and a reach edge, despite Aleksandre Topuria's distance strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Santiago Luna
60.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

54% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 288 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 288 similar fights By submission *Based on 288 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Aleksandre Topuria 19.7% 14.6% 5.1% 39.4%
Santiago Luna 30.3% 22.5% 7.8% 60.6%
288 historical bouts 50.0% 37.2% 12.8% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Aleksandre Topuria Santiago Luna
Career Record 7-1 8-1
Height 5' 7" 5' 9"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 68" 74"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 30 22

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

288 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 288 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

50% Reached the judges
50% Ended early
37% KO/TKO 13% Submission 5:00 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Aleksandre Topuria Santiago Luna
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 9, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Welterweight
Zak Ottow
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Alex Morono Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 22, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Light Heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
55.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Johnny Walker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 23, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Women's Strawweight
Mizuki Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70.3s
Hannah Goldy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
7.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 16, 2025
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Women's Flyweight
Dione Barbosa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
106s
Karine Silva Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
37.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 10, 2025
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Welterweight
Charles Radtke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
30.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mike Malott Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
59%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 30, 2016
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
—
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Anthony Johnson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
84.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2020
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Women's Flyweight
Amanda Ribas Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
85.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
68s
Paige VanZant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2019
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Women's Strawweight
Alexa Grasso Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
49.3
Strike accuracy
40.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2022
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39.8
Strike accuracy
53.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.4s
Max Holloway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.4
Strike accuracy
42.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.2s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 7, 2019
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Lightweight
Diego Ferreira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.3
Strike accuracy
33.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
Mairbek Taisumov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
31.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 13, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
67.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
Johnny Walker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 6, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson
Featherweight
Diego Rivas Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.5s
Noad Lahat
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
120s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 18, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
Light Heavyweight
Tuco Tokkos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Oumar Sy Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
210s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 24, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw
Women's Strawweight
Hannah Goldy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
50.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
106.3s
Diana Belbita Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
55.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Middleweight
Nassourdine Imavov Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
118s
Edmen Shahbazyan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
62.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Aleksandre Topuria Santiago Luna UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 14.7 22.1 13.2
Strike accuracy 55% 53.1% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.5 0.7 0.4
Takedown accuracy 33.3% 71.4% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0.3 0.2
Control time 73.7s 46.3s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 0.29 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 91.7% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 3 12 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 71.6% 73.5% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 22.7% 22.6% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 5.7% 3.9% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.83 12.86 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.43 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.18 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.4 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.5 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 81.8% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 27.3% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 54.5% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.8% 77.4% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.8% 17.4% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.4% 5.2% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 10:53 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,531.4 1,516.5 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.035 0.062 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early Peak —

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