FightChoice Intelligence Report

Randy Brown
vs
Jacobe Smith

Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith

https://fightchoice.app/events/randy-brown-vs-jacobe-smith-prediction-2026-10-31

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Oct 31, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

In an electrifying welterweight clash at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, Randy Brown steps into the octagon to face the rising star Jacobe Smith. With a wealth of experience, Brown boasts a UFC record of 14-8, towering over Smith at 6'3" with a long 78" reach, compared to Smith's 5'10" and 72". However, Smith, undefeated at 4-0, brings a perfect blend of striking precision and grappling acumen, showcasing a staggering 63.4% accuracy in strikes and an impressive 83.3% takedown accuracy. This could be a classic case of experience versus youth, reminiscent of fights like Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill, where raw talent clashed with seasoned skill.

As both fighters prepare for battle, the statistics paint a thrilling picture. Brown might be the veteran, but with a recent win streak of nine fights, Smith's confidence is sky-high. While Brown has a solid finish rate of 50%, Smith’s is even more striking at 77.8%, indicating that he knows how to get the job done when it matters most. With both fighters capable of decisive finishes, this fight promises a dynamic mix of stand-up battles and tactical grappling exchanges. Get ready for a showdown that could redefine the welterweight landscape!

#RandyBrown #JacobeSmith #UFCFightNight #Welterweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 24, 2026, 18:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Randy Brown Jacobe Smith
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 51.7% 48.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 15.3% 84.7%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 16.6% 83.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 14.7% 85.3%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 39.7% 60.3%
Ensemble 21.0% 79.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Jacobe Smith's win streak and Randy Brown's past prime status are strong indicators across multiple models. The ensemble favors Jacobe Smith (79%), a result driven by calibrated weighting despite a split among individual models.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Jacobe Smith, citing his better win rate against Randy Brown and his lower age compared to Randy Brown.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Jacobe Smith, pointing to his greater height advantage over Randy Brown and his higher takedowns landed.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Jacobe Smith
79.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

47% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 37 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 37 similar fights By submission *Based on 37 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Randy Brown 11.9% 5.7% 3.4% 21.0%
Jacobe Smith 44.8% 21.3% 12.8% 79.0%
37 historical bouts 56.8% 27.0% 16.2% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Randy Brown Jacobe Smith
UFC Record 14-8 4-0
Height 6' 3" 5' 10"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 78" 72"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 36 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

37 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 37 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

57% Reached the judges
43% Ended early
27% KO/TKO 16% Submission 4:03 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Randy Brown Jacobe Smith
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
45.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
Amanda Lemos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Middleweight
Darren Stewart Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
Eric Spicely
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2024
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Middleweight
Paul Craig
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Bo Nickal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
63.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2026
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Middleweight
Cesar Almeida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
74%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33s
Damian Pinas Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
75.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Zhang Mingyang Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
63
Strike accuracy
77.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.2
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Geoff Neal
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.2s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Heavyweight
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Sergei Pavlovich Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 7, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Welterweight
Alex Morono
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
27.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Daniil Donchenko Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
61.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.7s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Light Heavyweight
Chad Griggs
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Cyrille Diabate Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
85.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
115s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 2, 2019
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 29, 2009
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Lightweight
Marcus Aurelio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
26.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.3s
Evan Dunham Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
36%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.7s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Tom Aspinall Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
61.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.5s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2014
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
Flyweight
Will Campuzano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.3
Strike accuracy
9.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Justin Scoggins Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
59.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
199s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 8, 2023
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
32.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
Luana Pinheiro Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
36.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Heavyweight
Marcelo Golm
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
67.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.3s
Timothy Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
116.3s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Randy Brown Jacobe Smith UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.2 20.4 13.2
Strike accuracy 47.1% 63.4% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.2 1 0.4
Takedown accuracy 34.4% 83.3% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.2 0.2
Control time 41.6s 80.8s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.11 0.20 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.11 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 63.6% 100.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 9 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 22 9 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 62.1% 69.6% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.5% 19.6% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.4% 10.8% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 14.62 10.4 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.3 0 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.6 0 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.48 0 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 77.8% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 28.6% 66.7% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 21.4% 11.1% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 62.5% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 77.2% 60.8% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 15.2% 2.9% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.7% 36.3% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:31 3:42 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,580.7 1,559.7 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.210 0.079 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —

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