FightChoice Intelligence Report
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov
https://fightchoice.app/events/jean-paul-lebosnoyani-vs-farman-hasanov-prediction-2026-10-31
Welterweight
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Oct 31, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 10, 2026, 00:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Farman Hasanov
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
35.1%
64.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
62.8%
37.2%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
15.5%
84.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
57.8%
42.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
59.8%
40.2%
Ensemble
43.8%
56.2%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Farman Hasanov's superior takedowns landed and cardio metrics, particularly his cardio sig ratio, are the strongest drivers for the ensemble prediction. Despite a split among individual models, the ensemble favors Farman Hasanov (56%) due to calibrated weighting, with Model ζ providing a strong conviction pick.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, citing his reach advantage and Farman Hasanov's past prime status, despite Farman Hasanov's win rate.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, highlighting his reach advantage and Farman Hasanov's orthodox stance.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Farman Hasanov
56.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
82%
71%
60%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
60%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Farman Hasanov |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 11-2 | 6-0 |
| Height | 5' 11" | — |
| Weight | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach | 72" | — |
| Stance | Switch | — |
| Age | 27 | 31 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Matchup Intel
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Farman Hasanov |
|---|---|---|
|
52%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
|
Fight Performance
|
Natan Levy
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
49%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
|
Mario Bautista
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
49%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
|
Gabriel Gonzaga
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
47%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
|
Fight Performance
|
Askar Askarov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
47%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
|
Fight Performance
|
Djorden Santos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
47%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade
|
Fight Performance
|
Aoriqileng
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
47%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
|
Fight Performance
|
Enrique Barzola
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
47%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
|
Fight Performance
|
Nate Diaz
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
46%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 101: Declaration
|
Fight Performance
|
John Howard
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
46%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
|
Jacob Volkmann
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
46%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
|
Fight Performance
|
Natan Levy
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
46%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote
|
Fight Performance
|
Thales Leites
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
46%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade
|
Fight Performance
|
Marc-Andre Barriault
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
46%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
|
Zak Cummings
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
45%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva
|
Fight Performance
|
John Maguire
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Farman Hasanov |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 19.7 | 7 |
| Strike accuracy | 44.9% | 51.2% |
| Takedowns | 1 | 5.7 |
| Takedown accuracy | 46.2% | 63% |
| Sub attempts | 0.7 | 0 |
| Control time | 74.3s | 224s |
| Knockdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 4 | 1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 8 | 1 |
| head strike share | 63.6% | 95.2% |
| body strike share | 16.9% | 4.8% |
| leg strike share | 19.5% | 0.0% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 20 | 5 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | No |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | Yes | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 74.6% | 90.5% |
| clinch strike share | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| ground strike share | 11.0% | 9.5% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 15:00 | 15:00 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,533.1 | 1,515.3 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.112 | 0.023 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Early |
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