FightChoice Intelligence Report

Rodrigo Sezinando
vs
Theodor Berggren

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren

https://fightchoice.app/events/rodrigo-sezinando-vs-theodor-berggren-prediction-2026-10-31

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Oct 31, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 10, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Rodrigo Sezinando Theodor Berggren
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 28.4% 71.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 80.2% 19.8%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 59.8% 40.2%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 82.5% 17.5%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 58.7% 41.3%
Ensemble 68.6% 31.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Rodrigo Sezinando's reach advantage and Theodor Berggren's tendency to absorb knockdowns are the strongest drivers favoring Rodrigo Sezinando. The ensemble prediction favors Rodrigo Sezinando, despite some models noting Theodor Berggren's height and orthodox stance advantages.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Rodrigo Sezinando, citing his reach advantage over Theodor Berggren and Theodor Berggren's Elo rating.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Rodrigo Sezinando, based on his reach advantage and Theodor Berggren's ground strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Rodrigo Sezinando
68.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

43% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 286 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights By submission *Based on 286 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Rodrigo Sezinando 38.8% 19.7% 10.1% 68.6%
Theodor Berggren 17.8% 9.0% 4.6% 31.4%
286 historical bouts 56.6% 28.7% 14.7% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Rodrigo Sezinando Theodor Berggren
Career Record 8-2 8-4
Height 5' 9" —
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 71" —
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 28 26

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

286 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

57% Reached the judges
43% Ended early
29% KO/TKO 15% Submission 6:55 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Rodrigo Sezinando Theodor Berggren
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Featherweight
Josh Culibao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Danny Silva Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
44.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 4, 2014
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
Welterweight
Rory MacDonald Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
Tarec Saffiedine
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
30.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 6, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
Middleweight
Clint Hester Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
46.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
105s
Dylan Andrews
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
74s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 23, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
4
Takedown accuracy
46.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
234.7s
Charles Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
56.3s
Jared Cannonier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
29.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 13, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Welterweight
Bryan Battle Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Gabe Green
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 26, 2014
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
Lightweight
Jorge Masvidal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
149.7s
Daron Cruickshank
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
22.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 23, 2009
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Welterweight
Matt Serra
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.7
Strike accuracy
34.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.7s
Matt Hughes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
165.7s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 12, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
Lightweight
Rafa Garcia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.5
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Grant Dawson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
154.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
Heavyweight
Ben Rothwell Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Matt Mitrione
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2020
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Bantamweight
Aljamain Sterling Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
Cory Sandhagen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 2, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Light Heavyweight
Rodolfo Bellato Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.5s
Ihor Potieria
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.5
Strike accuracy
57.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Flyweight
Tim Elliott Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
49.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
85.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
224.3s
Victor Altamirano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.5s
Jared Cannonier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 27, 2008
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008
Middleweight
CB Dollaway Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
120s
Mike Massenzio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Rodrigo Sezinando Theodor Berggren
Per Round Average
Strikes 10 11.5
Strike accuracy 27.8% 35.9%
Takedowns 1 0
Takedown accuracy 25% 0%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 62s 8.5s
Knockdowns 0 0
Knockdowns absorbed 1 1
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 75.0% 64.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 75.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 4 14
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 70.0% 65.2%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 30.0% 30.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 4.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 39 35.5
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 88.9%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 44.4%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 44.4%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 40.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 70.0% 87.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 30.0% 13.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 4:27 6:35
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1484 1,485.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.017 0.065
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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