FightChoice Intelligence Report

Talita Alencar
vs
Piera Rodriguez

Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez

https://fightchoice.app/events/talita-alencar-vs-piera-rodriguez-prediction-2026-10-31

Women's Strawweight

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Oct 31, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 10, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Talita Alencar Piera Rodriguez
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 48.8% 51.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 55.1% 44.9%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 51.5% 48.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 39.1% 60.9%
Ensemble 46.4% 53.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Piera Rodriguez is favored by the ensemble prediction, driven by factors like her reach advantage and takedowns landed. While several individual models highlight P.R.'s strengths, the combined prediction is a close call, with some models favoring T.A. based on win rate and ground striking.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Piera Rodriguez, citing her reach advantage and younger age over Talita Alencar.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Piera Rodriguez, highlighting her superior clinch strike share and ground strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Piera Rodriguez
53.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

70% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 286 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights By submission *Based on 286 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Talita Alencar 24.0% 14.8% 7.6% 46.4%
Piera Rodriguez 27.8% 17.1% 8.8% 53.6%
286 historical bouts 51.7% 31.8% 16.4% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Talita Alencar Piera Rodriguez
Career Record 8-1-1 12-2
Height 5' 1" 5' 3"
Weight 115 lbs. 115 lbs.
Reach 58" 63"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 35 33

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

286 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 16% Submission 5:28 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Talita Alencar Piera Rodriguez
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Women's Bantamweight
Norma Dumont
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
51%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
Joselyne Edwards Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
Lightweight
Chris Duncan Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Bolaji Oki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2017
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
42.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
53s
Alistair Overeem Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
55.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 17, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov
Welterweight
Peter Sobotta
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.3s
Leon Edwards Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
166.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 11, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
catch/open/unknown
Ryan Spann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
32s
Nikita Krylov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
159s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 25, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos
Women's Flyweight
Lucie Pudilova
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
20.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Justine Kish Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 7, 2019
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Women's Flyweight
Andrea Lee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
44.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
86.3s
Joanne Wood Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.7
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 28, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Women's Strawweight
Randa Markos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
31.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
9.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
99s
Nina Nunes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 12, 2022
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
Lightweight
Michael Chandler
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
43%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
113s
Dustin Poirier Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 28, 2006
UFC Fight Night 5
Light Heavyweight
Rashad Evans Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
58.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
218s
Stephan Bonnar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 28, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Flyweight
Brandon Moreno
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.8
Strike accuracy
47%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
Lone'er Kavanagh Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.4
Strike accuracy
47.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Featherweight
Ricardo Lamas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chad Mendes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
84.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 23, 2009
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Lightweight
Sean Sherk
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
13.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Frankie Edgar Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
38.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2015
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Flyweight
Neil Seery
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
Louis Smolka Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
51.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
240s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 2, 2008
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon
Lightweight
Din Thomas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
23.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
Josh Neer Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
163s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Talita Alencar Piera Rodriguez
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.1 20.6
Strike accuracy 35.7% 48.6%
Takedowns 0.9 1.4
Takedown accuracy 37.8% 59.1%
Sub attempts 0.2 0
Control time 98.5s 93.2s
Knockdowns 0 0.05
Knockdowns absorbed 0.07 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 88.9% 86.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 9 15
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 61.2% 53.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 28.9% 36.5%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.9% 10.5%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 16.13 15.84
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.21
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.48 0.75
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.92 0.63
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.6 0.67
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 38.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 38.5%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 64.0% 63.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 12.0% 29.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 24.0% 7.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:55 13:14
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,547.2 1,546.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.109 0.183
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

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