FightChoice Intelligence Report

Julian Erosa
vs
JeongYeong Lee

Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee

https://fightchoice.app/events/julian-erosa-vs-jeongyeong-lee-prediction-2026-10-31

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Oct 31, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 10, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Julian Erosa JeongYeong Lee
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 43.1% 56.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 53.0% 47.0%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 46.7% 53.3%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 24.3% 75.7%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 37.2% 62.8%
Ensemble 36.4% 63.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

JeongYeong Lee is favored due to Julian Erosa absorbing significantly more sig strikes and knockdowns, and being considered past his prime. The ensemble prediction favors JeongYeong Lee, despite some models showing a closer split or Julian Erosa having a slight edge in sig strikes landed.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors JeongYeong Lee, citing J.E.'s past prime status, older age, higher sig strikes absorbed, and more knockdowns absorbed.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors JeongYeong Lee, noting J.E.'s higher sig strikes absorbed and older age, despite J.E. being orthodox.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
JeongYeong Lee
63.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

49% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 132 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 132 similar fights By submission *Based on 132 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Julian Erosa 17.1% 13.0% 6.3% 36.4%
JeongYeong Lee 29.9% 22.6% 11.1% 63.6%
132 historical bouts 47.0% 35.6% 17.4% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Julian Erosa JeongYeong Lee
UFC Record 9-9 2-2
Height 6' 1" 5' 10"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 74" 73"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 37 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

132 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 132 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

47% Reached the judges
53% Ended early
36% KO/TKO 17% Submission 4:18 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Julian Erosa JeongYeong Lee
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 2, 2016
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.4
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.2s
Carlos Condit
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.2
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2011
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
Welterweight
Dong Hyun Kim
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
Carlos Condit Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 11, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson
Welterweight
Ryan LaFlare Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
66%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
168.3s
John Howard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
66%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 14, 2012
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
Middleweight
Mike Massenzio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Rousimar Palhares Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 27, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping
Lightweight
Norman Parke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
23.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
Rustam Khabilov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
91.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
Lightweight
Michael Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s
Melvin Guillard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
21.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 28, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Lightweight
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
59.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.3s
Alexander Hernandez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
143.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2013
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
Flyweight
Tim Elliott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
30.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
22s
Ali Bagautinov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
28.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 18, 2023
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.3
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Roman Dolidze
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
98.3s
Blagoy Ivanov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
30.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 11, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Welterweight
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
89s
Matt Brown Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2015
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Welterweight
Matt Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Johny Hendricks Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
90%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
222.7s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 7, 2007
UFC 69: Shootout
Welterweight
Marcus Davis Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
165s
Pete Spratt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 17, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Middleweight
Derek Brunson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62s
Uriah Hall
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 2, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Bantamweight
Aiemann Zahabi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
Javid Basharat
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Julian Erosa JeongYeong Lee
Per Round Average
Strikes 24.4 14.6
Strike accuracy 48% 48.8%
Takedowns 0.5 0.2
Takedown accuracy 44.7% 66.7%
Sub attempts 0.2 0
Control time 37.2s 32.3s
Knockdowns 0.03 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.29 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 50.0% 50.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 50.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 18 4
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 66.2% 64.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 24.3% 26.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.5% 9.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 25.09 17.5
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.43 1.1
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.52 0.54
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.6 0.41
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 3.33 5.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 22.2% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 44.4% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 77.8% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 77.7% 74.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 16.3% 14.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.1% 11.6%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:50 11:31
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,515.6 1,498.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.234 0.088
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

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