FightChoice Intelligence Report

Azamat Bekoev
vs
Andre Petroski

Azamat Bekoev vs Andre Petroski

https://fightchoice.app/events/azamat-bekoev-vs-andre-petroski-prediction-2026-10-31

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Oct 31, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 10, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Azamat Bekoev Andre Petroski
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 53.9% 46.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 52.5% 47.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 45.9% 54.1%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 38.6% 61.4%
Ensemble 51.0% 49.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Andre Petroski's superior sig strikes absorbed and switch stance are key drivers favoring him across multiple models. Despite this, the ENSEMBLE prediction favors Azamat Bekoev due to calibrated weighting, reflecting a split among the individual models.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Azamat Bekoev, citing his age and past prime status over Andre Petroski.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Andre Petroski, noting his switch stance and sig strikes absorbed compared to Azamat Bekoev.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Azamat Bekoev
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

37% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 99 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 99 similar fights By submission *Based on 99 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Azamat Bekoev 24.2% 15.2% 10.6% 50.0%
Andre Petroski 24.2% 15.1% 10.6% 50.0%
99 historical bouts 48.5% 30.3% 21.2% 100.0%
Share This Intel Report
Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Azamat Bekoev Andre Petroski
Career Record 20-5 13-6
Height 6' 0" 6' 0"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 72" 73"
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 30 35

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Export as Image

Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

99 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 99 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

48% Reached the judges
52% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 21% Submission 6:17 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Azamat Bekoev Andre Petroski
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2023
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Brian Kelleher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
68%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 14, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Andre Petroski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2006
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2
Middleweight
Rory Singer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
30.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Yushin Okami Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
42.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
136.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Women's Bantamweight
Bea Malecki Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43.3
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.7s
Veronica Hardy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
36%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2010
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jim Miller Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
92s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2020
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Bantamweight
Aljamain Sterling Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
Cory Sandhagen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 6, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
Middleweight
Clint Hester Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
46.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
105s
Dylan Andrews
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
74s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Lightweight
Jim Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Dan Hooker Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 12, 2022
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
Middleweight
Alex Pereira Winner
Finish 5th Rnd, 2m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.2
Strike accuracy
58%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.2s
Israel Adesanya
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.2
Strike accuracy
53.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
78.8s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 3, 2010
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Middleweight
Kendall Grove Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
31.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Goran Reljic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.7
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
135s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2015
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Flyweight
Henry Cejudo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
85.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
190.3s
Chris Cariaso
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
31%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 10, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2
Featherweight
Chepe Mariscal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
73%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
71.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
170.3s
Damon Jackson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
65.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
86s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 29, 2024
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Welterweight
Ian Machado Garry Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
149.7s
Michael Page
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
55.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.7s
Dwight Grant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2018
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
Lightweight
Gilbert Burns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dan Hooker Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
64.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s

Export as Image

Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Azamat Bekoev Andre Petroski
Per Round Average
Strikes 17.3 11.9
Strike accuracy 52.3% 49.2%
Takedowns 0.9 0.9
Takedown accuracy 43.8% 52.8%
Sub attempts 0 0.4
Control time 64.1s 101.7s
Knockdowns 0.38 0.03
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 54.5% 74.1%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 11 27
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 63.8% 64.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 28.3% 20.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.0% 15.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 25.75 12.97
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.38 0.1
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.07 0.68
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.49 0.69
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 1.22
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 60.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 25.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 16.7% 35.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 60.0% 71.4%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 65.9% 75.1%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.0% 2.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 21.0% 22.4%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:33 10:20
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,497.2 1,523.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.074 0.222
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

More from UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan Randy Brown vs Carlos Leal Yana Santos vs Luana Santos Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos

Put your own money-free bets on Azamat Bekoev vs Andre Petroski

Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.

Create your free account